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                                学术堂专业论文学习平台您当前的位置:学术堂 > 经济学论文 > 房地产论文

                                天津城市住宅房地产价格合理性分析

                                时间:2019-03-19 来源:合作经济与科技 作者:吴婷,李昕,段岩燕 本文字数:2880字

                                  摘    要: 影响住宅房地产价格的因素有很多,它的变化规律可以用耗散结构理论进行解释。通过E-views数据处理及检验,对天津市住宅房地产价格合理性进行分析,得出多重线性回归模型的标准房价,对天津市实际房价进行偏离度计算,并为相应的住宅房地产价格提出合理化建议。

                                  关键词: 住宅房地产价格; 耗散结构理论; 合理性; 偏离度;

                                  一、引言

                                  KUAISUSHANGZHANGDEZHUZHAIYONGDIJIAGEYINQISHEHUIGONGZHONGGUANGFANGUANZHU,BENWENYITIANJINSHIWEIYANJIUDUIXIANG,YUNYONGHAOSANJIEGOULILUNDUIDIJIAJIQIBIANHUAHELIXINGJINXINGYANJIU,YIQIPANDUANQUYUTUDISHICHANGYUNXINGZHUANGTAI。

                                  二、数据来源

                                  (一)数据来源及处理。

                                星云棋牌官网下载   XUANQUTIANJINSHIDUOWEIYANJIUDUIXIANG,2000~2018NIANDECHENGSHIZHUZHAIXIAOSHOUJIAGESHUJULAIZITIANJINSHITONGJINIANJIAN,GDP、TIANJINCHENGZHENJUMINKEZHIPEISHOURU、FANGDICHANKAIFATOUZIE、CHENGXIANGJUMINNIANMOYUE、TIANJINRENJUNDAOLUMIANJI、ZONGRENKOUDENGSHUJULAIYUANYUZHONGHUARENMINGONGHEGUOGUOJIATONGJIJUWANGZHANHE《ZHONGGUOFANGDICHANTONGJINIANJIAN》,FANGJIALAIYUANYUANJUKEFANGCHANWANG。

                                  (二)研究思路与方法。

                                星云棋牌官网下载   BENWENTONGGUODUIFANGDICHANJIAGETEDIANYUHAOSANJIEGOULILUNDEGUANXI,ZONGHEYUNYONGE-viewsZHONGZUIXIAOERCHENGFAHEXIAOCHUDUOZHONGGONGXIANXINGDECHUTIANJINZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGEMOXING,BINGJINXINGPIANLIDUFENXI。

                                  HAOSANJIEGOULILUNTEZHENGYUFANGDICHANJIAGETEZHENGDEZONGHEBIJIAO,TEZHENGRUXIA:DIYI,KAIFANGXING。FANGDICHANYESHIWOGUOJINGJIZHONGDEZHONGYAOCHANYE,TADECHENGZHANGHEFAZHANSHOUDAOWOGUOZHENGZHI、JINGJI、WENHUAHEKEJIDENGDEZONGHEYINGXIANG。DIER,HAOSANJIEGOUDANGZHONGDECONGWUXUDAOYOUXU。FANGDICHANYESHIZAIQIZISHENNEIBUGEYINSUZHIJIANGUANXICUOZONGFUZA,ZAIZISHENYUNZUOGUOCHENGZHONGHUICHUXIANGEZHONGNANYIYUCEDEWENTI。RUGUOBUJISHIQUCHULI,SHIBIHUIDAOZHIFANGDICHANYEDEHUNLUANHEWUXU。DISAN,HAOSANJIEGOUXITONGBIXUSHIYUANPINGHENGTAIDEFEIXIANXINGJIEGOU。FANGDICHANDEJIECHUMIANYUELAIYUEDA,RENMENWEILEZHUIQIUGENGHAODESHENGHUOHUANJINGHESHENGHUOTIAOJIANYINGXIANGZHEFANGDICHANJIAGE,CHENGXIANBUPINGHENGDEFEIXIANXINGTEZHENG。DISI,HAOSANJIEGOUSHITONGGUOZHANGLUOCONGERDADAOYOUXUDEXITONGJIEGOU。SUOYI,ZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGEFUHEHAOSANJIEGOUDETEZHENG。

                                  三、天津市城市住宅房地产价格合理性分析

                                  (一)设定变量和模型。

                                  目前,对经济数据的分析,我们必须先进行序列平稳性的判断,用E-views软件对各个数据变量进行检验,进行一阶差分处理后要进行单位根检验,以避免伪回归和使数据更加有效。经过对数据的检验和整理,包括以下变量:人均GDP为X1,城镇居民储蓄年末余额为X2,常住人口为X3,房地产开发投资额为X4,并对这四组数据进行协整检验。建立住宅用地价格影响因素的个体固定效应回归模型:
                                 

                                天津城市住宅房地产价格合理性分析
                                 

                                  YOUE-viewsGETIXIANXINGHUIGUIKEZHI,FAXIANCUNZAIDUOZHONGGONGXIANXING,YINCIYAOXIAOCHUDUOZHONGGONGXIANXING,TONGGUODUIGEBIANLIANGZUODUISHUBIANHUAN,XIAOCHUDUOZHONGGONGXIANXING,ZAIDUIYIXIAMOXINGJINXINGGUJI:

                                  XIAOCHUDUOZHONGGONGXIANXINGHOUDEMOXINGGUJIJIEGUOWEI:

                                星云棋牌官网下载   Ln YZAN=1.06+0.69lnX1-0.31lnX2+0.06lnX3+0.34lnX4

                                星云棋牌官网下载   TONGGUONIHEJIEGUOKEZHI,KEJUEXISHUHENGAO,FZHIXIANZHE,NIHEYOUDUNIHEJIAOHAO。YOUMOXINGKEZHI,ZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGEYURENJUNGDP、CHANGZHURENKOUSHULIANG、FANGDICHANKAIFATOUZIECHENGZHENGXIANGGUAN,YUCHENGZHENJUMINCHUXUNIANMOYUECHENGFUXIANGGUAN,SHUOMINGZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGEYUJINGJIFAZHANSHUIPINGMIQIEXIANGGUAN。GENJUMOXINGKEDECHUTIANJINZHUZHAIFANGDICHANDEBIAOZHUNFANGJIA,2000~2008NIANTIANJINZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJUNZAI5,000YUANYIXIA,FANGJIACHENGHUANMANSHANGSHENGQUSHI,2008~2015NIANZAI5,000~10,000YUANZHIJIAN,2015~2018NIANFANGJIACHAOGUO10,000YUAN,QIESHANGSHENGQUSHIJIAKUAI。

                                  (二)标准房价与实际售价的偏离度测算结论。

                                星云棋牌官网下载   PANDUANFANGJIASHUIPINGBODONGSHIFOUHELI,XUYAOYINRUFANGDICHANJIAGEPIANLIDU,JISUANGONGSHIWEI:

                                  KSHIFANGDICHANJIAGEPIANLIDU;PSSHISHIJIDETIANJINFANGDICHANDEJIAGE;PjSHITIANJINSHIFANGDICHANZHUZHAIJIAGEJUNHENGZHI。XIQUGUONEIWAIXUEZHEZAIZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGEJINGJIYUJINGDENGFANGMIANDEJINGYAN,KEYIBAZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGEPIANLIDUHUAFENWEI5GEQUJIAN。K≥33.95%SHI,PIANLIDUGUOGAO,CHENGSHIFANGJIASHUIPINGYUANCHAOGUOQIJINGJIFAZHANSHUIPING,FANGDICHANSHICHANGTOUZIGUORE,ZHENGFUKEJIADADUITUDISHICHANGDEJIANKONGLIDU,YANKONGTOUJIXINGWEI;27.65≤K<33.95%,PIANLIDUPIANGAO,CHENGSHIFANGJIAYUQIJINGJIFAZHANSHUIPINGJIANJIANSHIHENG,ZHENGFUYINGTIQIANCAIQUYUFANGCUOSHI;2.45<K<27.65,PIANLIDUHELI,CHENGSHIFANGJIASHUIPINGCHUYUHELIQUJIAN,TUDISHICHANGPINGWENYUNXING;-3.86%<K≤2.45,PIANLIDUPIANDI,CHENGSHIFANGJIASHUIPINGPIANDI,ZHENGFUYINGTIGAOJINGTI,ZONGHEFENXIYUANYIN,JIAQIANGGUIFANTUDISHICHANGZHIXU;K≤-3.86%,PIANLIDUGUODI,CHENGSHIFANGJIAYUANDIYUQIJINGJIFAZHANSHUIPING,KENENGCUNZAITUDIZICHANLIUSHI,ZHENGFUYINGDUIFANGDICHANSHICHANGJINXINGQINGLIZHENGDUN。

                                  GENJUDUITIANJINFANGJIAPIANLIDUDECESUANKEDE,2000~2005NIANFANGJIAPIANLIDUCHENGFUSHU,QIEZAI2003NIANFANGJIAPIANLIDUK<-10%,KEZHI2000~2005NIANTIANJINZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGEDIYUTIANJINDEJINGJIFAZHANSHUIPING;2005~2008NIANHE2011~2018NIANTIANJINZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGEPIANLIDUZAI2.45<K<27.65QUJIAN,BIAOMINGTIANJINZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGESHUIPINGZAIHELIQUJIAN,QIEYOUBODONGSHANGSHENGHOUBODONGXIAJIANGQUSHI;2009~2011NIANTIANJINZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGEPIANLIDUK≥33.95%,BIAOMINGTIANJINZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGEGAOYUJINGJIFAZHANSHUIPING,YINGGAIJINXINGSHIDANGDEDIAOKONG。SUOYI,TIANJINZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGEBINGBUSHIRENMENKANDAODENEIYANGJIAGEXUGAO,GEBIENIANFENDEZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGEDIYUTIANJINSHIDEJINGJIFAZHAN,PIANLIDUYOUSHIHUIDIYUPINGJUNSHUIPING。TIANJINZUOWEIJINGJIFAZHANJIAOKUAIDECHENGSHI,ZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGEDEBODONGSHANGZHANGSHIZHENGCHANGDE,XUYAOXIAOFEIZHENENGGOULIXINGDIKANDAITIANJINSHIZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGEDEBODONGSHANGSHENG,TAYESHIRENKOUZENGZHANG、SHOURUTIGAO、JINGJIFAZHANSHUIPINGDENGZONGHEYINGXIANGDEJIEGUO。

                                  四、几点建议

                                  TONGGUODUITIANJINZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGEDEFENXIHECESUAN,TIANJINSHIZHUZHAIFANGDICHANDEFAZHANTAISHIFUHEHAOSANJIEGOULILUNDEXIANGGUANTIAOJIAN,BINGKEYITONGGUOHAOSANJIEGOUZHONGDEZHANGLUOCONGBUPINGHENGDADAOXINDEPINGHENGYOUXUDETAISHI。DUITIANJINFANGZHUZHAIDICHANJIAGETICHUDEJIANYIRUXIA:

                                星云棋牌官网下载   (YI)DALIFAZHANJINGJI,ZENGJIATIANJINSHIRENJUNGDP,SHIXIAOFEIZHEYOUXINXINGOUMAI,TOUZIZHEYOUXINXINTOUZI,CUJINFANGDICHANSHICHANGDEPINGWENJIANKANGFAZHAN。

                                  (ER)XIAOFEIZHELIXINGGOUFANG,RENSHIDAOZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGEBIANDONGDAILAIDESHOUYIHEFENGXIAN,WEIFANGDICHANSHICHANGYINGZAOYIGELIANGHAODEJIAOYIHUANJING,GONGTONGZHICHIFANGDICHANYEDEJIANKANGFAZHAN。

                                  (SAN)MINGQUEFANGDICHANGAIGEDEMUBIAO,JIAQIANGDUIZHUZHAIFANGDICHANDEJIANKONGLIDU,BIYAOSHIHOU,ZHENGFUYAOJIJIZHENGQUEDIYINDAOFANGDICHANDEFAZHANFANGXIANG。

                                星云棋牌官网下载   (SI)JIAQIANGCHANYEZHIJIANDEGOUTONGHEKUODAKAIFANG,RANGFANGDICHANFAZHANDETONGSHIDAIDONGQITACHANYEDEFAZHAN,FANGDICHANYEYEYAOZUODAODUIXIAOFEIZHEFUZE,JIANFUQIZHONGYAOXINGYEDEZEREN,TUIDONGSHEHUIDEWENDINGFAZHAN。

                                  ZONGSHANGSUOSHU,TIANJINSHIZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGEZONGTISHANGSHIBODONGSHANGSHENGDE,XIAOFEIZHEYAOLIXINGDIKANDAIJIAGESHANGZHANGDEYINSUHESHANGZHANGXIANXIANG,ZHUAZHUSHIJI,TIGAODUIFANGDICHANJIAGEDEHELIXINGYUPANDENENGLI。ZONGZHI,DUITIANJINSHIZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGEBODONGXIANXIANGDEYANJIU,SHUOMINGZHUZHAIFANGDICHANJIAGESHOUDANGDIDEJINGJIFAZHANSHUIPINGYINGXIANGJIAODA,SHOURENKOU、KEZHIPEISHOURUHEFANGDICHANTOUZIDENGGEZHONGYINSUDEZONGHEYINGXIANG,QIJIAGECHENGBODONGSHANGSHENGDEZOUSHISHIZHENGCHANGDE,YESHIXUYAOZHENGQUEKANDAIDE。XUYAOFANGDICHANYEZHENGQUYINDAODAZHONG,YEXUYAOZHENGFUZAIZUNZHONGJINGJIFAZHANGUILVDEQIANTIXIASHISHIDEDUIFANGDICHANYEJINXINGDIAOKONG。

                                  参考文献

                                  [1]龚永超.基于耗散结构理论的赣州市房地产价格评价研究[D].江西理工大学,2013.
                                  [2]景思琦,朱道林.长三角地区城市住宅地价合理性研究[J].价格月刊,2018(6).
                                  [3]李灿,刘超,葛京凤,等.基于城镇等别的地价合理性研究——以河北省十至十五等城镇为例[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017(6).
                                  [4] 韩娟,金晓斌,张志宏,等.中国住宅出让地价发育特征及其影响因素分析[J].地理科学,2016.
                                  [5]公云龙,张绍良,赵松,等.金融发展对城市地价的影响效应分析[J].中国土地科学,2012(3).
                                  [6]崔晓美,葛京凤,刘雅楠,等.城市群土地价格影响因素差异性研究[J].现代城市研究,2017(6).
                                  [7]强真,朱道林,毕继业.城市基准地价合理性判别方法研究[J].中国土地学,2005(1).
                                星云棋牌官网下载   [8]李晶晶,张绍良,李效顺,等.徐州市城市住宅用地合理价格测算[J].中国土地科学,2012(5).

                                  吴婷,李昕,段岩燕.天津市住宅价格合理性研究[J].合作经济与科技,2020(06):112-113.
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