星云棋牌官网下载

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                  南京市居民负债率和房价的相关性探究

                  时间:2019-03-19 来源:现代商业 作者:张奕暄 本文字数:3044字

                    摘    要: 星云棋牌官网下载中国的房价和居民负债率近年来均持续上升,本文通过研究房价和居民负债率之间的相关数据,去分析二者的因果关系,并且通过对南京市居民的问卷调查,证明了房价导致负债率上升。

                    关键词: 房价; 居民负债率; 南京; 影响;

                    一、研究背景

                    (一)研究背景和目的

                    SUIZHEZHONGGUOJINGJIDEFAZHAN,FANGJIACHIXUSHENGGAO,CHENGWEILAOBAIXINGGUANZHUDEZHUYAOYITI。2004NIANQUANGUOZHUZHAIXIAOSHOUPINGJUNJIAGEJINWEI2548.61YUAN/PINGFANGMI,DAO2017NIAN,ZHEIYISHUZIJIUSHANGSHENGDAOLE7614YUAN/PINGFANGMI。

                  星云棋牌官网下载   TONGSHI,ZHONGGUOJUMINFUZHAILVYIJINGZAIJIJUSHANGSHENG,CONG2004NIANDE5.29%SHANGSHENGDAOLE2017NIANDE10.46%。YOUDELILUNRENWEISHIRENMENDEXIAOFEIGUANNIANKAISHIFASHENGBIANHUA:LAOYIBEIRENWEIYAOJIANGQIANHAOHAOCUNZHE,YIBEIBUSHIZHIXU,YOUDUOSHAOQIANBANDUOSHAOSHI。DANXIANZAIDENIANQINGRENQUERENWEIYOUQIANJIUGAIHUA,MEIYOUQIANJIEQIANYEYAOHUA,YUELAIYUEDUODENIANQINGRENKAISHITUPOLAOYIBEIDEBAOSHOULINIANXUANZEDAIKUANHETOUZI,TIQIANXIAOFEIZHENGZHUJIANCHENGWEIYIZHONGZHULIU。BENWENRENWEIGENGJIAZHIJIEDEYUANYINSHIFANGJIA。

                  星云棋牌官网下载   NEIMEFANGJIAHEJUMINFUZHAILVSHUIPINGZHEIERZHEZHIJIANSHIFOUCUNZAIWENDINGDEXIANGGUANXINGHEYINGUOXING?BENWENXIWANGTONGGUOBENWENDEDIAOCHAYANJIU,YANZHENGFANGJIADESHANGZHANGDAILAILEJUMINFUZHAILVSHANGSHENG,BINGQIEZHAOCHUBEIHOUDEYUANYIN。

                    (二)研究方法

                    为了了解房价和居民负债率之间的关系,本文先从数据方面为房价和居民负债率的二者相关性进行定量验证,然后从定性角度对二者的因果关系进行分析,最终通过南京地区家庭的问卷调查实证验证了本文的分析。
                   

                  南京市居民负债率和房价的相关性探究
                   

                    二、房价和负债率之间关系分析

                    ZAICIXUANYONGGUOJIATONGJIJUGONGBUDE2004NIAN~2017NIANQUANGUOZHUZHAIXIAOSHOUPINGJUNJIAGE,YUGUANGFAZHENGQUANGENJUSHEKEYUANZICHANFUZHAIBIAOBIANZHIFANGFA,DIAOZHENGHEBUCHONGHOU,DECHUDE2004NIAN~2017NIANZHONGGUOJUMINZICHANFUZHAILV。

                    表房价和居民负债率数据
                  表房价和居民负债率数据

                  星云棋牌官网下载   ZILIAOLAIYUAN:GUOJIATONGJIJU、ZHONGGUOSHEKEYUAN、GUANGFAZHENGQUAN

                    CONGSHANGBIAOZHONGYEKEYIZHIGUANKANDAO,ERZHEZOUSHIYOUZHEQIANGLIEDEYIZHIXING。CONG2004NIANDAO2017NIAN,QUANGUOZHUZHAIXIAOSHOUPINGJUNJIAGECONG2548.61YUAN/PINGFANGMISHANGSHENGDAO7614YUAN/PINGFANGMI,ERFUZHAILVYECONG5.29%SHANGSHENGDAOLE10.46%。

                    三、原因分析

                    BENWENRENWEIJUMINFUZHAILVDEDAFUTISHENGYUFANGJIADESHANGZHANGTONGBUSHIYINWEIERZHECUNZAIYINGUOGUANXI,YEJIUSHISHUO,FANGJIADESHANGZHANGDAILAILEJUMINFUZHAILVDEDAFUTISHENG,QIANZHEWEIYIN,HOUZHEWEIGUO。YUANYINRUXIA:

                    (一)房价相对于收入上涨,导致居民不得不增加房产贷款

                    ZHONGGUOJUMINZHONGGUOBANZICHANSHIFANGDICHAN,FANGDICHANXIANGDUIZONGZICHANBIZHONGYUANGAOYUMEIGUO、YINGGUODENGXIFANGFADAGUOJIA。ZHEIJIUYIWEIZHEFANGDICHANJIAGEBIANDONGDUIZHONGGUOJUMINGANGGANLVDEYINGXIANGCHENGDUJIAOSHEN。[1]

                    BENWENSHOUXIANXUANZETONGGUOBIJIAOJINSHINIANFANGJIASHOURUBIDEBIANHUALAIGUANCHAFANGJIAZOUSHI。FANGJIASHOURUBIYIBANZHIZHUFANGJIAGEYUCHENGSHIJUMINJIATINGNIANSHOURUZHIBI,SHIHENGLIANGJUMINZHUFANGJIAGECHENGSHOUNENGLIHEFANGDICHANSHIFOUCUNZAIPAOMODEZHONGYAOZHIBIAO。FENXIFAXIAN,2004NIAN,YOU173GEDIJIDANYUANDEFANGJIASHOURUBIJIAOGAO(HPIR>4),ZHANDIJIDANYUANZONGSHUDEYIBAN,QIZHONG,YOU31GEDIJIDANYUANDEFANGJIASHOURUBIHENGAO(HPIR>6),FANGJIASHOURUBIZUIGAODESHISANYASHI,DA11.43,QICISHISHANGHAISHI、BEIJINGSHI、HANGZHOUSHIHESHENZHENSHI,QIHPIRJUNZAI8YISHANG。2014NIAN,DUODA328GEDIJIDANYUANDEHPIRJIAOGAO,ZHANZONGSHUDE95.6%,RENMENJIUSHIJIYUBUDUANSHANGZHANGDEFANGJIAPOBUDEYIKAISHIDAIKUAN,FOUZERENMENJIUYAOHUAFEISHIJINIANSHENZHIGENGZHANGDESHIJIANLAIZHIFU,ZHEIHAIBUBAOKUOZHONGXINDIDUANDENGGAOEDIDUAN。

                    图1 个人住房贷款变化
                  图1 个人住房贷款变化

                  星云棋牌官网下载   ZILIAOLAIYUAN:ZHONGGUORENMINYINXING、YIJUYANJIUYUAN

                    (二)高房价带来多样化的融资渠道,提升居民负债率

                    YINWEIFANGJIACHIXUZOUGAO,ZHISHIRUJINQUANKUANMAIFANGYIJIANJIANWUFAFUZHUSHISHI,DAJIAJIUQUXUANZEDAIKUAN。[2]YINXINGDAIKUANJIUSHIYIZHONGCHANGGUIDAIKUAN。DANCHANGGUIDAIKUANDEYAOQIUJIAOGAO,XUYAOMANZUXINYU、CAICHANZHENGMINGDENGDUOFANGMIANYINSUCAIKEYICHENGGONGDAIKUAN。YOUXIERENBUMANZUZHEIXIETIAOJIAN,YOUCICHANSHENGLEYIXIEGONGYINGSHANGZHICHIDAIKUANFUWU,CONGERCHANSHENG“HUISEDIDAI”。ERZHEIYOUWEIYIXIEFANGKUANZHESHIXIANLEDUOYANGHUADEFANGKUANQUDAO。FANGJIADECHIXUSHENGGAODAILAIDAIKUANFANGSHIDEDUOYANGHUA,YUANLAIBUMANZUCHANGGUIDAIKUANFANGSHIDERENYEKEYITONGGUOQITAFANGSHIJIARUDAODAIKUANMAIFANGDEXINGLIE,SHIDEDAIKUANDERENQUNZENGDUO,ZHENGTISHANGSHIDEJUMINFUZHAIBILVZENGJIA。

                  星云棋牌官网下载   GENJUZHONGGUORENMINYINXINGHEGUOJIATONGJIJUFABUDESHUJU,DEDAODUANQIXIAOFEIDAIKUANYUEXINZENGYUSHEHUIXIAOFEIPINLINGSHOUEBIZHIZOUSHI,ZHENGTILAIKAN,QUXIANZHENGTICHENGXIANSHANGXINGTAISHI,PIANLIZHANGQIJUNHENGQUXIANKEYILIJIEWEIYICHANGXIAOFEIXINDAI。CONGTUZHONGKEYIKANDAO,ZAI2010NIAN、2012NIAN、2017NIAN,DOUCHUXIANLEYICHANGXIAOFEIXINDAI。ERZHEIJINIAN,ZHENGSHIQUANGUOFANGJIACHUXIANBAOFASHISHANGZHANGDENIANFEN。ZHEIZHONGYICHANGXIAOFEIXINDAIHENYOUKENENGSHIYOUFANGJIASHANGZHANGDAILAIDEHUISEJIEDAIJINRULOUSHIDEJIEGUO。

                    图2 短期消费贷款余额新增与社会消费品零售额比值走势
                  图2 短期消费贷款余额新增与社会消费品零售额比值走势

                  星云棋牌官网下载   ZILIAOLAIYUAN:ZHONGGUORENMINYINXING、YIJUYANJIUYUAN

                    四、实证研究

                  星云棋牌官网下载   YISHANGBENWENZUODEGENGDUODELILUNYANJIU,HAIXUYAOSHIJIANLAIJIANYANLILUNDEZHUNQUEXING。LINGWAIYOUYUBENWENSHUJUCAIYONGQUANGUOXINGSHUJU,YINCIWEILEGENGJIAZHIGUANFANGBIANDILEJIENANJINGSHIJUMINDEFANGCHANHEGANGGANLVGUANXI,BENWENSHEJILEYIFENBIAODANLAILEJIEJUMINDEFANGCHANHEFUZHAILVGUANXI,XIANGNANJINGSHI20~55ZHOUSUIJUMINFAFANG。

                    WENJUANDIAOCHA:

                    1.NINDENIANLING

                    A.XIAOYU18SUI(HAN18SUI)B.19SUIDAO30SUIC.31SUIDAO45SUID.45SUIDAO60SUIE.60SUIYISHANG(HAN60SUI)

                  星云棋牌官网下载   2.SHIFOUZAINANJINGCHIYOUFANGCHAN(KEYIBUZAIZIJIMINGXIA,YIZHIJIEHUOJIANJIEFANGSHICHIYOU)

                    A.SHIB.FOU

                    3.FANGJIASHOURUBIWEIPINGJUNZHUFANGJIAGEYUNINDEJIATINGNIANSHOURUZHIBI,DUININZIJIJIATINGERYAN,ZUIJIN10NIANLAIFANGJIASHOURUBISHISHANGSHENGHAISHIXIAJIANG

                    A.SHANGSHENGB.XIAJIANG

                    4.MUQIANDUININZIJIJIATINGERYAN,YIXIANZAICHIYOUHUOZHEYOUYIXIANGGOUMAIDEFANGWUZONGJIA,YUNINDEJIATINGNIANSHOURUDEBIZHIWEI:

                    A.4YIXIAB.4-6 C.6-8 D.8YISHANG

                    5.NINSHIFOURENWEININRUGUOXIANZAIGOUFANGDEHUABIXUDAIKUAN

                    A.SHIB.FOU

                    6.NINSHIFOUYOUTINGSHUOHUOZHELEJIEGUO,RUXIAFANGSHIZHONGDEQIZHONGYIZHONGHUOZHEDUOZHONGYONGLAIZUOWEIGOUFANGSHOUFUDEFANGSHI?(LIRUXINYONGKA“XIAOFEIDAI”“JINGYINGDAI”“GERENXINYONGDAI”“FANGDIDAI”DENG)。

                    A.SHIB.FOU

                    TONGGUOYANGESHAIXUANDIAOCHAWENJUAN,ZUIZHONGGONGHUISHOUYOUXIAOWENJUAN276FEN。TOUGUOGAIDIAOCHABIAO,KEYIKANDAO,36.2%JIESHOUDIAOCHADERENNIANLINGSHIZAI20~35ZHOUSUIZHIJIAN,63.8%DERENSHIZAI35~55ZHOUSUIZHIJIAN,QIZHONG22.8%DERENYIZHIJIEHUOJIANJIEFANGSHICHIYOUFANGCHAN。

                    WENJUANDIAOCHADEJIEGUOXIANSHI,86.2%DERENRENWEIZUIJIN10NIANLAIZAINANJINGDEFANGJIASHOURUBISHISHANGSHENGDE,ZHEIBIAOMINGJUEDADUOSHUDERENDOURENWEIZUIJIN10NIANLAINANJINGDEFANGJIAXIANGDUIZIJIDESHOURUSHANGZHANGDEYAOGENGKUAI。ERJUTISHUZHISHANG,YOU30.8%DERENRENWEIFANGJIASHOURUBIZHANTAMENZONGSHOURUDEBIZHIFEICHANGGAO(HPIR>8),SHENZHI89.9%DERENRENWEIRUJINGOUMAIFANGCHANXUYAODAIKUAN。YIJUFANGDICHANYANJIUYUANZAI2017NIANFABUDEQUANGUOBAICHENGFANGJIASHOURUBIYANJIUBAOGAOXIANSHI,NANJINGDEFANGJIASHOURUBIWEI13.1,HEWOMENDIAOCHADEJIEGUOLVEYOUQUBIE。ZHEIZHUYAOSHIYINWEIBENWENSHOUJIXINXIZILIAODEFANWEIYURENQUNCHAYIXINGBIJIAODA,ERSHUJULIANGYOUXIAN,DAOZHIJIEGUOFENHUAMINGXIAN。DIAOCHAJIEGUOXIANSHI,JIEJIN90%DERENWEILEGOUFANG,YIJINGHUOZHEZAIWEILAIHUIXUANZEDAIKUAN,TONGSHIYOUYUFANGJIAXIANGDUISHOURUSHANGZHANGGENGKUAI,SUOYIDAOZHIJUMINBUMENZICHANFUZHAILVDEDAFUTISHENG。

                  星云棋牌官网下载   ERTONGSHI,JIEGUOYEXIANSHI,YOU75.7%DERENTINGSHUOHUOZHELEJIEGUO,RUXIAFANGSHIZHONGDEQIZHONGYIZHONGHUOZHEDUOZHONGYONGLAIZUOWEIGOUFANGSHOUFUDEFANGSHI。BIRUSHUOXINYONGKA“XIAOFEIDAI”“JINGYINGDAI”“GERENXINYONGDAI”“FANGDIDAI”,ZHEIXIEJINGUANSHIHUISEDIDAI,CANYUDIAOCHADERENBUYIDINGZHENZHENGCHANGSHIGUOZHEIYANGDEFANGSHI,DANSHIZHEIMEGAODESHUZHIBIAOMINGDESHIZHEIXIEHUISERONGZIGOUFANGDEFANGSHIYIJINGZAIJUMINBUMENJIANYOULEJIAOWEIGUANGFANDECHUANBO,CHONGFENBIAOMINGFANGJIAGAOQIHUIDAILAIDUOYANGHUADERONGZIQUDAO。

                    SUOYI,TONGGUODUINANJINGSHIJUMINGOUFANGXIANGGUANWENTIDEWENJUANDIAOCHA,WOMENBUNANFAXIANFANGJIADESHANGZHANGSUDUHEJUMINWEILEGOUFANGERBUDEBUJINXINGDUOYANGHUADEJIEDAIQUDAO,SHIDAOZHIJUMINFUZHAILVSHANGSHENGDELIANGGEZHUYAOYUANYIN,LIANGGEZHUYAOYUANYINDOUKEGUANDETIGAOLEJUMINFUZHAILV。

                    五、结论

                  星云棋牌官网下载   TONGGUOJUMINFUZHAILVHEFANGJIAXIANGGUANXINGDEFENXI,KEYIKANDAOLIANGZHEDOUSHITONGBUSHANGYANG。ERTONGGUOLUOJITUIYANHESHIZHENGFENXIDEFANGSHI,BENWENZHAODAOLEJUMINFUZHAILVHEFANGJIAZHIJIANDEYINGUOGUANXI。ZHEISHICONGLIANGFANGMIANDAOZHIDE,DIYI,ZUIJINJINIANLAI,FANGJIAXIANGDUIYUSHOURUSHANGZHANGGENGWEIXUNSU,DAOZHIJUMINBUDEBUZENGJIAFANGCHANDAIKUAN,SHIJUMINFUZHAILVSHANGSHENGDEZHUYAOYUANYIN。DIER,YINWEIFANGJIACHUXIANSHANGZHANG,DAILAILEDUOYANGHUADEJIEDAIQUDAO,ZUIZHONGDAOZHILEJUMINFUZHAILVSHANGSHENG。ZHEILIANGGEYUANYIN,ZUIZHONGGOUCHENGLEJUMINFUZHAILVDEDAFUTISHENG,CHUXIANLEYUFANGJIASHANGZHANGTONGBUDEJUMIAN。

                    参考文献

                    [1]廖丽平,张锐.中国家庭债务率的客观描述与风险检视[J].对外经贸实务,2018(11).
                    [2]童伟,张居营.人口老龄化与房价波动对居民部门债务风险的影响研究[J].财经论丛,2018(03).

                    张奕暄.中国房价和居民负债率关系分析——以南京市为例[J].现代商业,2020(04):33-34.
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