星云棋牌官网下载

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                                人口老龄化对服务业发展的正向和负向影响分析

                                时间:2017-08-08 来源:中国人口科学 作者:吴飞飞,唐保庆 本文字数:14638字

                                  摘要:文章分析了人口老龄化对服务业发展的正向和负向影响, 并利用20052015年中国省级面板数据进行实证检验。结果显示, 总体来看, 受限于伴随老龄化而来的劳动力成本上升、中国养老保障体系尚未健全, 以及适应于人口老龄化趋势的中国现代服务业产业体系的构建仍处于初级阶段, 人口老龄化不断加剧将会阻碍现阶段中国服务业发展;分区域来看, 由于不同区域的要素结构不同, 且服务业发展程度存在阶段性差异, 相对于中西部地区, 人口老龄化对东部地区服务业发展的阻碍作用更为突出;进一步研究显示, 养老保障体系的完善可以在一定程度上弱化人口老龄化对中国服务业发展的负向影响。中国在人口老龄化不断加剧的背景下, 应通过培育质量型人口红利, 增加有效劳动供给, 完善养老保障体系等方式应对人口老龄化带来的负向冲击, 不断推动服务业高质量发展。

                                  GUANJIANCI:RENKOULAOLINGHUA; FUWUYEFAZHAN; SHENGCHANXINGFUWUYE; SHENGHUOXINGFUWUYE;

                                人口学

                                星云棋牌官网下载   Analysis on the Impact of Population Aging on the Development of China's Services

                                  Wu Feifei Tang Baoqing

                                星云棋牌官网下载   Abstract:

                                  This paper summarizes both positive and negative effects of population aging on the development of China's services and analyzes empirically the impact of population aging on the development of services by using the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2015. The result shows that, on the whole, the aging of population has a negative effect on the development of China's services, which is due to rising labor cost, the imperfection of China's pension system and the initial stage of construction of the modern services system, which is suitable for the trend of population aging. As for the aspect of regional analysis, compared to the central and western regions, the negative effect of aging population on the development of services is even more prominent in the eastern region, which originates from the differences in the factor endowments among regions and the differences in the stages of development of services among regions. The further analysis points out that China can weaken the suppression effect of population aging by improving the pension security system. In the background of the growing trend of population aging, we should take the initiative to promote the high-quality development of service industry by cultivating quality-oriented demographic dividend, increasing effective labor supply and improving pension security system so as to actively cope with the negative shock brought by the aging population.

                                  一、引言

                                星云棋牌官网下载   MUQIAN, ZHONGGUOFUWUYEZHENGCHUYUYAOSUSHENGJI、JIEGOUZHUANXINGHEZENGSUHUANDANGDEGUODUSHIQI, RENKOULAOLINGHUABUDUANJIAJUYICHENGWEIKUNRAOZHONGGUOFUWUYENENGFOUSHIXIANLIANGHAOFAZHANDEZHONGYAOWAIBUTIAOJIANZHIYI (DENGMING, 2014;WANGWEIDENG, 2015) , JUTIERYAN, RENKOULAOLINGHUAHUITONGGUOYINGXIANGLAODONGGONGJI、RENLIZIBENJILEI、JUMINCHUXU、FUWUYECHANPINXUQIU、SHEHUIZIBENLIUXIANGDENGDUOZHONGLUJINGYINGXIANGFUWUYEFAZHAN (WANGWEIDENG, 2015;MaveZHIovYANDENG, 2015;AcemogluDENG, 2017) 。MUQIAN, ZHONGGUO“CUGAIGE、DIAOJIEGOU”XIANGGUANZHENGCEDESHISHIZHENGZAITUIDONGCHANYEJIEGOUBUDUANDIAOZHENG, DISANCHANYEZHANGDPDEBIZHONGYEZAIBUDUANTIGAO。GENJUGUOJIATONGJIJUSHUJU, 1995~2015NIAN, ZHONGGUODISANCHANYEZENGJIAZHIYOU19 978.5YIYUANZENGZHANGZHI344 075.0YIYUAN, 20NIANJIANZENGZHANG17BEIDUO;DISANCHANYECHANZHIZHANGDPBIZHONGYEYOU32.9%SHANGSHENGDAO50.2%。SHIJIUDABAOGAOZHICHU, ZHONGGUOSHENHUAGONGJICEJIEGOUXINGGAIGEDEZHUGONGFANGXIANGZHIYIJIUSHI“ZHICHICHUANTONGCHANYEYOUHUASHENGJI, JIAKUAIXIANDAIFUWUYEFAZHAN”, TONGSHIHAIXUYAO“JIJIYINGDUIRENKOULAOLINGHUA, JIAKUAILAOLINGSHIYEHECHANYEFAZHAN”。

                                星云棋牌官网下载   MUQIAN, DUIYUFUWUYEFAZHANERYAN, ZHONGGUORENKOULAOLINGHUAJIAJUDAILAIDETUCHUWENTIZHUYAOBIAOXIANZAIYIXIAJIFANGMIAN: (1) ZAIZHILIANGXINGRENKOUHONGLISHANGWEIQUANMIANXINGCHENGDEXIANJIEDUAN, SHULIANGXINGRENKOUHONGLIZHENGZAIZHUBUTUIQUE, ZHEIDUIYUXIANJIEDUANYILAODONGMIJIXINGDECHUANTONGFUWUYEFAZHANWEIZHU、ZHISHIJISHUMIJIXINGDEXIANDAIFUWUYESHANGZAIXINGCHENGDEZHONGGUOFUWUYEFAZHANERYAN, ZHEIZHONGRENKOUJIEGOUBIANHUAKENENGDAILAILAODONGGONGJIDUANQUE、RENLIZIBENJILEIBUZUDENGFUXIANGCHONGJI (WANGWEIDENG, 2015) 。 (2) MUQIANZHONGGUOYANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIZHENGCHUYUZHUBUWANSHANJIEDUAN, CHENGXIANGJIBENYANGLAOBAOXIANZHIDUHUIYINGXIANGZHONGGUOFUWUYEFAZHANHERENKOULAOLINGHUAYUFUWUYEZHIJIANDENEIZAIGUANXI。 (3) ZHONGGUOYANGLAOFUWUYEFAZHANTAISHIYURENKOULAOLINGHUAJINCHENGSHANGWEISHIXIANXIETONGFAZHAN, XIANJIEDUANYANGLAOFUWUYECUNZAISHESHIGONGJIBUZU、FUWUZHONGLEIPIANSHAO、ZIJINTOURUYOUXIAN、GUANLIHEGUIZHIHUNLUAN、ZHENGCEZHICHITIXIBUWANSHAN、LAONIANRENYOUXIAOXUQIUBUZUDENGWENTI, YUANWEIXINGCHENG“YIJIATINGYANGLAOWEIJICHU、SHEQUYANGLAOWEIYITUO、JIGOUYANGLAOWEIZHICHENG”DEXIANDAIYANGLAOFUWUTIXI (CUISHUYI、TIANYANG, 2017) , ZHEIJIANGHUIQIANGHUADAZHONGDECHUXUDONGJI, BINGJIANGDIDAZHONGDEDANGQIANXIAOFEISHUIPING, YIZHISHENGHUOXINGFUWUYE (NAIZHIZONGTIFUWUYE) DEPINGWENFAZHAN。

                                  MUQIAN, XITONGTANTAORENKOULAOLINGHUADUIFUWUYEFAZHANYINGXIANGDEWENXIANJIAOSHAO, JINYOUJIPIANWENXIANCONGFUWUYEGONGJIYUXUQIUJIAODUDUIXIANGGUANWENTIJINXINGLELILUNTANTAO (PekkaDENG, 2010;SilverstovsDENG, 2011;CHENWEIMIN、SHIMEICHENG, 2014) , QUEFAQUANGUOCENGMIANDEJINGYANSHUJUZHICHENG。XIANYOUDABUFENGUANYURENKOULAOLINGHUADEWENXIANZHUYAOJIZHONGYANJIURENKOULAOLINGHUADUILAODONGGONGJI、CHUXULV、JUMINXIAOFEI、JISHUJINBU、JINGJIZENGZHANGDENGFANGMIANDEYINGXIANG (BerkDENG, 2015;TANHAIMINGDENG, 2016;MaestasDENG, 2016) , YIJIRENKOULAOLINGHUADEJIJIYINGDUIZHICE (PENGXIZHE、HUZHAN, 2011;BloomDENG, 2010) 。BUFENWENXIANQIANGDIAORENKOULAOLINGHUADUIFUWUYEFAZHANDEJIJIYINGXIANG。PekkaDENG (2010) ZHICHU, SUIZHERENKOULAOLINGHUACHENGDUBUDUANJIAJU, FUWUYECONGYEZHEDEGONGZUOJINGLISUIZHENIANLINGZENGZHANGERBUDUANFENGFU, ZHEIJIANGTISHENGFUWUYELAODONGSHENGCHANLVBINGCUJINFUWUYEKUAISUFAZHAN。WANGWEIDENG (2015) JIYUZHONGGUODEJINGYANSHISHIYANJIUFAXIAN, RENKOULAOLINGHUAKEGUANSHANGYOUZHUYUCHANYEJIEGOUDIAOZHENGBINGHUICUJINFUWUYENEIBUJIEGOUDEYOUHUA。MaveZHIovYANDENG (2015) ZEZHICHU, ZAIRENKOULAOLINGHUAGUOCHENGZHONG, YANGLAOBAOJIAN、YILIAOWEISHENGDENGLINGYUCUNZAIJUDADETOUZIQIANLI。CIWAI, RENKOULAOLINGHUADUIFUWUYEFAZHANDEXIAOJIYINGXIANGYEYINQILEXUESHUJIEDEGUANZHU。BerkDENG (2015) ZHICHU, ZAIRENKOULAOLINGHUAGUOCHENGZHONG, JIAOSHINIANLINGJIEGOULAOHUAJIANGHUITONGGUOCHUANDIJIAOWEILUOHOUDEJISHUZHISHIJIWEILAILAODONGZHE, CONGER“JIABEIFANGDA”RENKOULAOLINGHUADEFUXIANGXIAOYING。YAODONGMINDENG (2017) YANJIUFAXIAN, LAOLINGHUADUIYURENLIZIBENJILEIHEKEJICHUANGXINSHUIPINGJUNYOUXIANZHUDEFUXIANGYINGXIANG, LAOLINGHUAHUITONGGUORENLIZIBENJILEIYINGXIANGKEJICHUANGXINSHUIPING。KEJIAN, GUANYURENKOULAOLINGHUAJIUJINGSHIZHENGXIANGHAISHIFUXIANGYINGXIANGFUWUYEFAZHAN, XIANYOUWENXIANSHANGWEIDECHUYIZHIDEJIELUN。

                                  JIYUCI, BENWENLIYONGZHONGGUODEJINGYANSHUJULAISHIZHENGFENXIRENKOULAOLINGHUADUIFUWUYEFAZHANDEZONGHEYINGXIANG, BINGKAOCHAYANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIWANSHANDUIYUSHANGSHUZUOYONGJIZHIDEYINGXIANG。

                                  二、中国人口老龄化与服务业发展的特征事实分析

                                  BENWENYIJINNIANLAIZHONGGUORENKOULAOLINGHUAHEFUWUYEFAZHANDEJINGYANSHUJULAIGUINAXIANGGUANDEDIANXINGSHISHI。YIFANGMIAN, DUIZHONGGUORENKOULAOLINGHUAYANBIANQUSHIJINXINGFENXI, YOUZHUYULIJIEZHONGGUORENKOULAOLINGHUADEEHUACHENGDUHEJIEDUANXINGTEZHENG;LINGYIFANGMIAN, DUIZHONGGUORENKOULAOLINGHUAYUFUWUYEFAZHANQUSHIJINXINGXIETONGBIANHUAFENXI, YOUZHUYUCONGZONGTISHANGBAWOERZHEZHIJIANDEXIANSHIBIANHUAQUSHI。

                                  (一) 中国人口老龄化的演变趋势

                                星云棋牌官网下载   BIAO1FANYINGLE2005~2015NIANZHONGGUORENKOUJIEGOUBIANHUAQUSHI。CONGZHONGKEYIKANCHU: (1) 2005~2015NIAN, 65SUIYISHANGRENKOUSHULIANGZENGZHANG4 331WANREN, LAOLINGHUALVSHANGSHENG2.8GEBAIFENDIAN, ZHEIBIAOMINGJINNIANZHONGGUORENKOULAOLINGHUAQUSHISHIFENMINGXIANQIESUDUXUNMENG。 (2) ZHONGGUOLAONIANFUYANGBIYOU2005NIANDE10.7%SHANGSHENGDAO2015NIANDE14.3%, LAOLINGRENKOUZENGZHANGSUDUKUAIYULAODONGNIANLINGRENKOUZENGZHANGSUDUDAOZHIZHONGGUOLAODONGNIANLINGRENKOUDEFUYANGFUDANBUDUANZENGJIA。 (3) ZHONGGUOSHAOERFUYANGBIWENBUXIAJIANGBINGZAIJINXIENIANQUYUWENDING, ZONGFUYANGBICHENGXIAN“XIANXIAJIANGHOUSHANGSHENG”DEFAZHANQUSHI。

                                  表1 2 0 0 5~2015年中国人口结构演变趋势 

                                  ZILIAOLAIYUAN:XIANGYINGNIANFENDE《ZHONGGUOTONGJINIANJIAN》。

                                  图1 1 9 9 5~2015年中国服务业水平与人口老龄化的变化趋势

                                 

                                  资料来源:相应年份的《中国统计年鉴》。

                                  (二) 中国人口老龄化与服务业发展趋势的对比分析

                                  TU1MIAOHUILE1995~2015NIANZHONGGUORENKOULAOLINGHUAYUFUWUYEFAZHANDEBIANHUAQUSHI (1) 。CONGZHONGKEYIKANCHU, 1995~2015NIAN, LAOLINGHUALVCONG6.2%SHANGSHENGDAO10.5%, LAONIANRENKOUFUYANGBICONG9.2%SHANGSHENGDAO14.3%, JUNZENGZHANG4~5GEBAIFENDIAN。FUWUYEZENGJIAZHIZHANBICONG1995NIANDE32.9%SHANGSHENGDAO2015NIANDE50.2%;FUWUYEJIUYERENKOUBIZHONGYECONG1995NIANDE24.8%SHANGSHENGDAO2015NIANDE42.4%。FUWUYEJIUYEBIZHONGYUFUWUYEZENGJIAZHIZHANBICHENGCHIXUSHANGSHENGZOUSHI。

                                  三、人口老龄化影响服务业发展的机理分析

                                  YIGEDIQUDERENKOULAOLINGHUACHENGDUHUIYINGXIANGGAIDIQUDELAODONGLIGONGJI、RENLIZIBENJILEI、XIAOFEIXUQIU、SHEHUIZIBENLIUXIANGDENGFANGMIAN, JINERCONGDUOGEJIAODUYINGXIANGGAIDIQUDEFUWUYEGUIMOJINEIBUJIEGOU。

                                  (一) 人口老龄化对服务业发展的正向影响

                                星云棋牌官网下载   SHOUXIAN, CONGLAODONGLIGONGJIJIAODULAIKAN, SUIZHERENKOULAOLINGHUABUDUANJIAJU, LAODONGLISHICHANGSHANGDEMAIFANGJINGZHENGGENGJIAJILIE, GAOXIAOLVDEFUWUYEQIYENENGGOUZAISHICHANGSHANGHUODEGENGHAODEYAOSUZIYUAN, ERDIXIAOLVDEQIYEJIANGZHUBUTUICHUSHICHANG, RENKOULAOLINGHUAJIANGHUI“DAOBI”FUWUYENEIBUJIEGOUYOUCHUANTONGDELAODONGMIJIXINGFUWUYEXIANGXIANDAIDEZIBENJISHU (HANRENLIZIBEN) MIJIXINGFUWUYEFANGXIANGYANBIAN。QICI, CONGRENLIZIBENJILEIJIAODULAIKAN, RENKOULAOLINGHUABUDUANJIAJUJIANGHUIBANSUIJINENGXIANSHU、JINGYANFENGFUDELAODONGLIBUDUANZENGJIA, ZHEIJIANGYOULIYUJINENGMIJIXINGFUWUYEJISHENGCHANXINGFUWUYEDEKUAISUZENGZHANG, JINERCUJINFUWUYENEIBUJIEGOUSHENGJI (WANGWEIDENG, 2015) 。ZAICI, CONGSHEHUIZIBENZHUANYILAIKAN, RENKOULAOLINGHUAJIANGDAOZHIYIGUOZONGTICHUXULVCHUXIANYIDINGCHENGDUDEXIAJIANG, YUANYUYIGUONEIBUDESHEHUITOUZIJIANGCHUXIANYIDINGCHENGDUDEJIANSHAO, ZHEIJIANGTISHENGSHEHUIZIBENDESHIYONGCHENGBEN, BINGJIASUSHEHUIZIBENCONGSHOUYILVPIANDIDELAODONGMIJIXINGFUWUYE (CHUANTONGFUWUYE) JIASUZHUANYIZHISHOUYILVGENGGAODEZIBEN (HUORENLIZIBEN) MIJIXINGFUWUYE (XIANDAIFUWUYE) 。TONGSHI, RENKOULAOLINGHUAJIAJUBIJIANGBANSUIZHELAONIANFUWUYEYUNYUYUFAZHAN, ZHENGZAIXINGQIDE“YINFACHANYE”YOUZHEGUANGKUODEFAZHANQIANJINGYUHUOLIKONGJIAN, ZHEIJIANGTISHENGFUWUYEFAZHANDETOUZIXIYINLI, BINGCUJINDAGUIMODESHEHUIZIBENLIUXIANGLAONIANXIANGGUANFUWUCHANYE。ZUIHOU, CONGFUWUYEXUQIUJIEGOUBIANHUALAIKAN, RENKOULAOLINGHUACHENGDUBUDUANJIAJUJIANGDAOZHILAOLINGCHANYEDEKUAISUFAZHAN, ZHENDUILAONIANRENDELVYOU、JINRONG、BAOXIAN、YULEDENGCHANYEJIANGYINGYUNERSHENGBINGBUDUANWANSHAN, ZHEIJIANGTUIDONGFUWUYENEIBUYULAONIANRENXIANGGUANDEFUWUCHANYEBIZHONGBUDUANTISHENG (BloomDENG, 2010;MaoDENG, 2014) 。CIWAI, GENJUMASILUODEXUQIUCENGCILILUN, DANGWUZHIXUQIUDEDAOJIDADEMANZUHOU, RENMENDEJINGSHENXUQIUJIANGSHANGSHENGWEIZHUYAOXUQIU, ZHURULAONIANTIYU、LAONIANYULEDENGXIANGGUANCHANYEJIANGBIRANCHENGWEIFUWUYECHANYEFAZHANDEZHONGYAOFANGXIANG。ZONGSHANGSUOSHU, BANSUIYIGUORENKOULAOLINGHUAQUSHIBUDUANJIAJUHELAONIANQUNTIGUIMOBUDUANZENGJIA, GAIGUOFUWUYEFAZHANKENENGHUIYINCIHUODELIANGHAODEFAZHANJIYUHEGUANGKUODEZENGZHANGKONGJIAN, RENKOULAOLINGHUADUIFUWUYEFAZHANKENENGHUIBIAOXIANCHUZHENGXIANGYINGXIANG。

                                  (二) 人口老龄化对服务业发展的负向影响

                                  RENKOULAOLINGHUADUIFUWUYEFAZHANDEFUXIANGYINGXIANGKEYICONGLAODONGLICHENGBEN、RENLIZIBENJILEI、SHEHUIZIBENZHUANYI、XIAOFEIXUQIUJIEGOUBIANDONGHEYANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIGOUJIANDENGJIAODUJIAYIXIANGXISHUOMING。SHOUXIAN, CONGLAODONGLICHENGBENJIAODULAIKAN, RENKOULAOLINGHUASUOYINZHIDELAODONGLICHENGBENSHANGSHENGJIANGZHISHIYILAODONGMIJITOURUWEIZHUYAOTEZHENGDECHUANTONGFUWUYEFAZHANKONGJIANBEIJIDAYASUO, RUGUOYIGUOFUWUYEFAZHANYICHUANTONGFUWUYEWEIZHU, HUOZHEGAIGUOYAOSUJIEGOUBUNENGGOUYOUXIAOZHICHENGLAODONGLICHENGBENSHANGSHENGDE“DAOBIXIAOYING”SUOYINZHIDEFUWUYENEIBUJIEGOUSHENGJI, NEIMERENKOULAOLINGHUASUODAILAIDELAODONGGONGJIJIANSHAOJIANGHUIYIZHIYIGUOFUWUYEFAZHAN。QICI, CONGRENLIZIBENJILEIJIAODULAIKAN, RUGUOYIGUOLAODONGLIQUNTIBENSHENDEJINENGSHUIPINGJIAODI, QIEZAIGONGZUOZHONGYOUBUNENGDEDAOYINGYOUDEGANGWEIPEIXUNHEZHIYEJIAOYU, JIANGSHIBANSUIRENKOULAOLINGHUAERLAIDELAODONGRENKOUNIANLINGJIEGOULAOHUA, BINGBUNENGWEIZAIGANGLAODONGZHEDAILAIJINGYANJILEIJIJINENGQIANGHUA, JINERBUHUIDUIFUWUYEFAZHANCHANSHENGJIJIYINGXIANG。ZAICI, CONGSHEHUIZIBENZHUANYILAIKAN, RUGUOLAONIANRENKOUDEXIAOFEIYISHI、XIAOFEIXIGUANBINGWEIYOUCHUANTONGXIAOFEIMOSHIJISHIGUODUZHIZHUZHONGGERENGAOPINZHITIYANHEZONGHEXIAOYONGTISHENGDEXIANDAIXIAOFEIMOSHI, YIHUOYANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIHUOYILIAOTIXIDEJIANSHERENGCHUYUCHUJIJIEDUAN, ZHEIDOUHUIJIANGDI“YINFACHANYE”DETOUZIHUIBAOLVBINGLAZHANG“YINFACHANYE”DECHENGZHANGZHOUQI, BINGKENENGZAICHUSHIJIEDUANTIXIANWEIRENKOULAOLINGHUAYIZHIFUWUYEFAZHAN。CONGXIAOFEIXUQIUJIEGOUBIANHUALAIKAN, JINGUANRENKOULAOLINGHUAJIANGHUIYINZHIQIANZAIDELAONIANXIANGGUANFUWUYEFAZHAN, DANLAONIANQUNTIYONGYOUXIAOFEIYIYUANBUNENGDENGTONGYUQIJUBEIXIAOFEINENGLI, JUEDINGYOUXIAOXUQIUGUIMOHECENGCIDESHEHUIXIAOFEIGUANNIAN、JINGJIFAZHANSHUIPING、YANGLAOTIXIWANSHANCHENGDUDENGYINSUZAIRENKOULAOLINGHUAJIEDUANXIANDEYOUQIZHONGYAO。RUGUOLAOLINGJIECENGDEXIAOFEIYISHIJIXIAOFEIXIGUANRENGTINGLIUZAICHUANTONGXIAOFEIMOSHI, YIHUOYANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIHUOYILIAOTIXIBUGOUWANSHAN, ZHEIDOUJIANGHUIYIZHILAONIANQUNTIDEYOUXIAOXUQIUSHUIPING, JINERDAOZHIRENKOULAOLINGHUAYINGXIANGFUWUYEFAZHANDECUJINXIAOYINGHENNANDEDAOCHONGFENTIXIAN。KAOLVDAOYIGUOFUWUYEFAZHANTEDINGJIEDUAN、LAODONGCHENGBENSHANGSHENG、RENLIZIBENJILEIBUZU、YANGLAOBAOJIANTIXIBUWANSHANDENGXIANSHIYINSUHOU, RENKOULAOLINGHUADUIFUWUYEFAZHANKENENGHUIBIAOXIANCHUFUXIANGYINGXIANG。

                                  四、实证分析

                                  (一) 模型构建及变量说明

                                  1. 模型构建

                                  BENWENCANKAOHansen (1999) 、CHENWEIMINHESHIMEICHENG (2014) 、WANGWEIDENG (2015) 、AcemogluDENG (2017) DENGYANJIU, SHEDINGYIXIAJILIANGMOXING:

                                  QIZHONG, i、tFENBIEBIAOSHIDIQU、SHIJIAN;ServiceWEIFUWUYEZENGJIAZHI, JUTIXIFENWEIZONGTIFUWUYEZENGJIAZHI (Service1) 、SHENGCHANXINGFUWUYEZENGJIAZHI (Service2) JISHENGHUOXINGFUWUYEZENGJIAZHI (Service3) ;AgingWEIRENKOULAOLINGHUACHENGDU, SystemWEIYANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIWANSHANDU, I (·) WEIMENJIANGUJIMOXINGDEZHISHIHANSHU, TWEIMENJIANZHI;CVWEIKONGZHIBIANLIANG, δ0、δ1、φ0、φ1、φ2、φ0、φ1、φ2、ΦJUNWEIGUJIXISHU, μBIAOSHISUIJIRAODONGXIANG。GUANYUKONGZHIBIANLIANGDEXUANQU, GONGJICENGMIANBAOKUOFUWUYEJIUYERENKOU (Labor) 、FUWUYEZIBENCUNLIANG (Capital) ;XUQIUCENGMIANBAOKUORENJUNSHOURU (Pgdp) 、CHENGSHIHUASHUIPING (Urban) ;CHANYEHUDONGCENGMIANWEIDIQUGONGYEGUIMO (Manu) 。ZAI3GEJILIANGMOXINGZHONG, MOXING (1) YONGYUKAOCHARENKOULAOLINGHUADUIFUWUYEFAZHANDEJINGYANYINGXIANG, MOXING (2) YONGYUKAOCHAYANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIWANSHANDUIFUWUYEFAZHANDEJINGYANYINGXIANG, MOXING (3) WEIDANYIMENJIANMOXINGBINGYONGYUKAOCHAYANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIWANSHANDUIRENKOULAOLINGHUAYUFUWUYEFAZHANZHIJIANGUANXIDEJINGYANYINGXIANG (1) 。

                                  2. 变量说明和数据处理

                                  KAOLVDAOSHUJUDEKEHUODEXING, BENWENXUANZE2005~2015NIANZHONGGUO31GESHENGFENDEMIANBANSHUJUJINXINGSHIZHENGFENXI, XIANGGUANSHUJUJUNLAIZILINIAN《ZHONGGUOTONGJINIANJIAN》HE《ZHONGGUODISANCHANYETONGJINIANJIAN》。JUTIZHIBIAOCESUANWEI: (1) ZONGTIFUWUYEZENGJIAZHI (Service1) 。BENWENYONGFUWUYEZENGJIAZHIHENGLIANGFUWUYEFAZHAN, YI2005NIANWEIJIQI、YONGXIAOFEIZHEJIAGEZHISHUTICHUJIAGEYINSUYINGXIANGDESHIJIZENGJIAZHIDEZIRANDUISHULAICESUAN。 (2) SHENGCHANXINGFUWUYEZENGJIAZHI (Service2) 、SHENGHUOXINGFUWUYEZENGJIAZHI (Service3) 。BENWENGENJUXIANYOUDEFUWUYEXINGYETONGJIMENLEI, CANKAOWANGWEIDENG (2015) , YONGFANGDICHANYE、JINRONGYE、JIAOTONGYUNSHUJICANGCHUYOUZHENGYE3GEXINGYEDEZENGJIAZHIJIAZONGLAIHENGLIANGSHENGCHANXINGFUWUYEFAZHAN, YONGPIFALINGSHOUYE、ZHUSUCANYINYE2GEXINGYEDEZENGJIAZHIJIAZONGLAIHENGLIANGSHENGHUOXINGFUWUYEFAZHAN。CIWAI, ZAISHIZHENGFENXIZHONG, HAISHIYONGFUWUYEXIFENXINGYECENGMIANDESHUJU。XIANGGUANZHIBIAOCESUANGUOCHENGJUNYUZONGTIFUWUYEZENGJIAZHIDECESUANBAOCHIYIZHI。 (3) RENKOULAOLINGHUACHENGDU (Aging) 。BENWENCANKAOCHENWEIMINHESHIMEICHENG (2014) 、WANGWEIDENG (2015) DEYANJIU, ZAICHUSHIHUIGUIHEWENJIANXINGFENXIFENBIECAIYONGLAONIANRENKOUFUYANGBI、LAOLINGHUALVLAIHENGLIANGDIQURENKOULAOLINGHUACHENGDU。 (4) YANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIWANSHANDU (System) 。BUTONGDIQUDEJIBENYANGLAOBAOXIANCANYUQINGKUANGKEYIJIAODACHENGDUFANYINGGAIDIQUDEYANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIWANSHANDU。KAOLVDAOSHUJUDEKEHUODEXING, BENWENZAICHUSHIHUIGUIHEWENJIANXINGFENXIZHONGFENBIECAIYONGDIQUSHIJICANJIAJIBENYANGLAOBAOXIANRENSHUBIZHONGHECHENGZHENZHIGONGYANGLAOBAOXIANJIAOFEIJINEZHANDIQUGDPBIZHONGLAIHENGLIANGGAIDIQUDEYANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIWANSHANDU。 (5) FUWUYEJIUYERENSHU (Labor) 。LAODONGTOURUSHIJUEDINGFUWUYEZENGZHANGDEYIGEZHONGYAOYINSU。SUIRANRENLIZIBENJILEIYESHIYINGXIANGFUWUYEFAZHANDEZHONGYAOJUEDINGTIAOJIAN, DANKAOLVDAOMUQIANZHONGGUOFUWUYEFAZHANZHENGCHUYUYOUCHUJIJIEDUANXIANGZHONGGAOJIJIEDUANGUODUDEZHUANXINGSHIQI, FUWUYECONGYERENSHUZAIYIDINGCHENGDUSHANGKEYIFANYINGFUWUYEDERENLIZIBENQINGKUANG。JUTICESUANSHI, DUIFUWUYECONGYERENSHUQUZIRANDUISHUCHULI。 (6) FUWUYEZIBENCUNLIANG (Capital) 。ZIBENTOURUSHIFUWUYEFAZHANBUKEHUOQUEDELINGYIZHONGYAOYINSU。BENWENCAIYONGYONGXUPANCUNFALAIHENGLIANGFUWUYEZIBENCUNLIANG。DUIYUBUFENQUESHISHUJU, CAIYONGCHAZHIFAJINXINGBUQUAN;LIYONGGUDINGZICHANTOUZIJIAGEZHISHUJIANGLINIANFUWUYEGUDINGZICHANTOUZIEZHUANHUAWEIYI2005NIANJIAGEWEIJIQIDEFUWUYEGUDINGZICHANTOUZISHIJIZHI, RANHOUCAIYONGYONGXUPANCUNFADEDAOGESHENGFUWUYEDEZIBENCUNLIANGBINGQUZIRANDUISHU。BENWENCANKAOHallDENG (1999) 、LIGUCHENGDENG (2014) YANJIU, GENIANFENZIBENCUNLIANGDECESUANGONGSHIWEI:Kt=Kt-1× (1-δ) +It, K1=I1/ (g+δ) , g= (It/I1) 1/ (t-1) -1, QIZHONG, KtWEItNIANDEZIBENCUNLIANG, ItWEItNIANDETOUZIE, δWEIZHEJIULV (QU10%) , K1HEI1FENBIEWEICHUSHIZIBENCUNLIANGHECHUSHITOUZIE, gWEITOUZIDEJIHEZENGZHANGLV。 (7) RENJUNSHOURU (Pgdp) 。RENJUNSHOURUKEYIZAIYIDINGCHENGDUSHANGFANYINGJUMINDEYOUXIAOGOUMAINENGLIHEXIAOFEIXUQIUGUIMO, XIAOFEIXUQIUYEHUIYINDAOFUWUYEGONGJISHUIPINGBINGZAIYIDINGCHENGDUSHANGJUEDINGFUWUYEFAZHANFANGXIANG。GAIZHIBIAOYI2005NIANWEIJIQI, LIYONGGDPPINGJIANZHISHUTICHUJIAGEYINSUYINGXIANGDEGEDIQURENJUNSHIJIGDPDEZIRANDUISHULAIHENGLIANG。 (8) CHENGSHIHUASHUIPING (Urban) 。CHENGSHIHUASHUIPINGZAIYIDINGCHENGDUSHANGDAIBIAORENKOUJUJIDU, CHENGSHIHUAFAZHANJIANGHUIYINZHIGENGDADEFUWUYECHANPINXUQIU;TONGSHI, RENKOUJUJIDUYUEGAODEDIQU, GUIMOJINGJIXIAOYINGYUEYIYUFAHUI, FUWUYEGONGJIDEBIANJICHENGBENYEJIUYUEDI。BENWENCAIYONGCHENGZHENRENKOUZHANZONGRENKOUBIZHONGHENGLIANGDIQUCHENGSHIHUASHUIPING。 (9) DIQUGONGYEGUIMO (Manu) 。FUWUYEYUGONGYESHIHUDONGXIETONGFAZHANDE, ERZHESHIXIANGHUZUOYONG、XIANGHUYILAI、GONGTONGFAZHANDEHUDONGGUANXI (GuerrieriDENG, 2005) 。FUWUYEFAZHANSHIJIANLIZAIGONGYEFAZHANSHUIPINGJICHUSHANG, GONGYEFAZHANWEIFUWUYEFAZHANTIGONGLEJICHUDEWUZHIJIJISHUZHICHI。BENWENCAIYONGGONGYEZENGJIAZHIZHANGDPBIZHONGHENGLIANGDIQUGONGYEHUASHUIPING。

                                  (二) 实证检验及结果讨论

                                  1. 基准回归分析

                                  SHOUXIAN, LIYONGMOXING (1) SHIZHENGFENXIRENKOULAOLINGHUADUIZHONGGUOFUWUYEFAZHANDEZONGTIYINGXIANG, JIEGUORUBIAO2SUOSHI。CONGBIAO2KEYIKANCHU, RENKOULAOLINGHUADUIZHONGGUOZONGTIFUWUYEFAZHAN、SHENGCHANXINGFUWUYEFAZHANHESHENGHUOXINGFUWUYEFAZHANDEYINGXIANGJUNWEIFU, ERQIEZHEIZHONGXIAOYINGZHUYAOSHITONGGUOYINGXIANGFANGDICHANYE (Estate) HEPIFALINGSHOUYE (Sale) FAZHANERTIXIAN (1) 。ZHEIBIAOMING, CONGMUQIANLAIKAN, RENKOULAOLINGHUAJIAJUJIANGHUIXIANZHUYIZHIZHONGGUOFUWUYEFAZHAN。KENENGYUANYINZAIYU, YIFANGMIAN, ZHONGGUOFUWUYEFAZHANHAISHIYICHUANTONGFUWUYEWEIZHU, SHANGWEIXINGCHENGSHIYINGYULAOLINGHUAJIEDUANDE、YIXIANDAIFUWUYEWEIZHUDECHANYEJIEGOU, RENKOULAOLINGHUADAOZHIZHONGGUOFUWUYECONGYERENSHUDEJIANSHAOHEYONGGONGCHENGBENDESHANGSHENG (RENKOULAOLINGHUADE“CHENGBENXIAOYING”) , YUCITONGSHI, ZHONGGUODERENLIZIBENJILEISUICHUYUSHANGSHENGJIEDUANDANBUNENGWANQUANMIBUSHANGSHUFUXIANGXIAOYING;LINGYIFANGMIAN, XIANYUZHONGGUOLAONIANBAOZHANGTIXISHANGWEIJIANQUAN (JIEE, 2017) , RENKOULAOLINGHUADEJIAJUJIANGHUIYIZHILAOLINGRENKOUDUIFUWUDEXUQIUYOUQIANZAIXUQIUZHUANHUAWEIYOUXIAOXUQIU。MaestasDENG (2016) 、AcemogluDENG (2017) YEZHICHU, RENKOULAOLINGHUAJIANGHUITONGGUOJIANHUANLAODONGLIZENGZHANGSUDUHEJIANGDILAODONGSHENGCHANLVDENGLUJINGSHIJINGJIZENGZHANGFANGHUAN。

                                  CONGBIAO2HAIKEYIKANCHU: (1) CONGZONGTILAIKAN, CHUANTONGYAOSUTOURU (Labor、Capital) ZENGJIAJIANGHUIDAIDONGFUWUYEFAZHAN, ERSHENGHUOXINGFUWUYEFAZHANGENGDUOYIKAOLAODONGTOURU;FENXINGYELAIKAN, BUTONGFUWUYEXIFENXINGYEFAZHANDUIYUBUTONGLEIXINGYAOSUTOURUDEYILAICHENGDUCUNZAICHAYI, JIAOTONGYUNSHUJICANGCHUYOUZHENGYE、PIFALINGSHOUYEDEFAZHANZHUYAOYIKAOLAODONGTOURULADONG, JINRONGYE、CANYINZHUSUYEDEFAZHANGENGDUOYIKAOZIBENTOURULADONG, FANGDICHANYEDEFAZHANYOUZIBENHELAODONGLIANGZHONGYAOSUTOURUGONGTONGQUDONG。 (2) RENJUNSHOURU (Pgdp) DUIFUWUYEFAZHANDECUJINZUOYONGSHIFENXIANZHU。YIFANGMIAN, DANGRENMENDEKEZHIPEISHOURUZHUBUZENGJIASHI, DUIYUGELEICHANPINHEFUWUDEXUQIUYEJIANGZHUBUZENGJIA, ZHEIJIANGYOUZHUYUSHENGCHANXINGFUWUYEHESHENGHUOXINGFUWUYEHUODEJIAOKUAIFAZHAN;LINGYIFANGMIAN, ZAIYIDINGCHENGDUSHANG, FUWUYESHIRENLEISHEHUIFAZHANDAOYIDINGJIEDUANSUOXINGCHENGDECHANYE, QIFAZHANCHENGDUBIRANGENZHIYUBENDIQUDEJINGJIFAZHANCHENGDU。 (3) CHENGSHIHUA (Urban) DUIZONGTIFUWUYEFAZHANDEYINGXIANGBINGBUXIANZHU, DANDUISHENGHUOXINGFUWUYEXIFENXINGYE (PIFALINGSHOUYE、CANYINZHUSUYE) FAZHANDEYINGXIANGXIANZHUWEIZHENG。CONGLILUNSHANGKAN, CHENGSHIHUAKEYITONGGUOJIJUXIAOYING、CHANYEHUDONGXIAOYINGDENGDUOZHONGQUDAOLAITISHENGZIYUANLIYONGLVBINGCUJINFUWUYEFAZHAN, ZHEIZAISHENGHUOXINGFUWUYEXIFENXINGYECENGMIANDEDAOLEJIANYAN;RANER, CONGXIANSHIQINGKUANGKAN, ZHONGGUOMUQIANDECHENGSHIHUARENGRANYANZHECUFANGSHILUJINGKUOZHANG、SHIJICHENGSHIHUASHUIPINGRENGJIUPIANDI, JIAZHIZHONGGUOFUWUYEFAZHANSHUIPINGRENGJIUCHUYUCHUJIJIEDUAN, ZHEIGONGTONGDAOZHILEZHONGGUOZHENGZAIJINXINGDECHENGSHIHUABINGWEICUJINZONGTIFUWUYEFAZHAN (1) 。 (4) GONGYEHUA (Manu) DUIFUWUYEFAZHANCHANSHENGXIANZHUDEFUXIANGYINGXIANG。CONGLILUNSHANGSHUO, FUWUYEYUGONGYESHIHUDONGXIETONGFAZHANDE, ERZHESHIXIANGHUZUOYONG、XIANGHUYILAI、GONGTONGFAZHANDEHUDONGGUANXI (GuerrieriDENG, 2005;XIQIANGMINDENG, 2015) , RANER, CONGXIANSHILAIKAN, MUQIANZHONGGUOBUTONGCHANYEZHIJIANDELIANDONGXIAOYINGSHANGBUMINGXIAN, GONGYEGUIMOKUOZHANGJIANGHUIZHENGDUOZONGTIJINGJIZHONGDEYAOSUZIYUANBINGJIZHANFUWUYEFAZHANKONGJIAN, JINERYIZHIFUWUYEFAZHAN。

                                  表2 基于模型 (1) 的全国层面回归结果 (N=341)  

                                  ZHU:KUOHAONEISHUJUWEItZHI;R2DUIYINGDEWEIZUNEINIHEDU;HausmanDUIYINGDESHIJIANYANZHIDEpZHI。TransDAIBIAOJIAOTONGYUNSHUJICANGCHUYOUZHENGYE, BankWEIJINRONGYE, EstateWEIFANGDICHANYE, SaleWEIPIFALINGSHOUYE, LodgWEICANYINZHUSUYE。XIANYUPIANFU, GAIBIAOJINJICHUHausmanJIANYANSUOZHICHIGUDINGXIAOYINGMOXINGDEGUJIJIEGUO。*、**、***FENBIEBIAOSHIZAI10%、5%、1%DESHUIPINGSHANGXIANZHU。

                                  2. 区域层面的回归分析

                                星云棋牌官网下载   KAOLVDAOZHONGGUOBUTONGQUYUZAIFUWUYEFAZHANCHENGDUHERENKOUJIEGOUDENGFANGMIANDECHAYIJIAOWEIMINGXIAN, JINYIBUJIANGZONGTIYANGBENHUAFENWEIDONGBUDIQU、ZHONGXIBUDIQUYANGBENZU, ZAILIYONGMOXING (1) JINXINGHUIGUI, JIEGUORUBIAO3SUOSHI。

                                  CONGFENQUYUDEHUIGUIJIEGUOKAN, RENKOULAOLINGHUADUIDONGBUDIQUFUWUYE (ZONGTIFUWUYE、SHENGCHANXINGFUWUYE、SHENGHUOXINGFUWUYE) FAZHAN、ZHONGXIBUDIQUSHENGHUOXINGFUWUYEFAZHANDEYINGXIANGJUNXIANZHUWEIFU, DUIZHONGXIBUDIQUZONGTIFUWUYEFAZHANJISHENGCHANXINGFUWUYEFAZHANDEYINGXIANGBUXIANZHU。MUQIAN, DONGBUDIQUDEFUWUYEFAZHANZHENGCHUYUYOUCHUANTONGDELAODONGMIJIXINGFUWUYEXIANGXIANDAIDEZIBEN (RENLIZIBEN) MIJIXINGFUWUYEZHUANBIANDEGUODUSHIQI, JIASHANGRENKOULAOLINGHUASUODAILAIDEYONGGONGCHENGBENSHANGSHENGHEZHICHENGXIANDAIFUWUYEFAZHANDEYAOSUJILEIRENGWEIWANQUANSHIXIAN, GONGTONGDAOZHIRENKOULAOLINGHUADUIDONGBUDIQUFUWUYEFAZHANCHANSHENGXIANZHUDEYIZHIXIAOYING。ERDUIYUZHONGXIBUDIQUERYAN, YIFANGMIAN, YOUYUDONGBUDIQUYONGGONGCHENGBENSHANGSHENGHEZHONGXIBUDIQUDEYAOSUJIEGOUZHUBUGAISHAN, SHIDALIANGDEZHIZAOYECHANYEYOUDONGBUDIQUZHUBUXIANGZHONGXIBUDIQUJINXINGTIDUZHUANYI, BINGZAICIGUOCHENGZHONGZAIZHONGXIBUDIQUCUISHENGCHUXUDUOYIKAOLAODONGYAOSUDALIANGTOURUDESHENGCHANXINGFUWUYE;LINGYIFANGMIAN, ZHONGXIBUDIQUDEDALIANGXIANZHILAODONGLIZIYUANJIANGZAICIGUOCHENGZHONGBEICHONGFENXISHOUZHISHENGCHANXINGFUWUYEBUMEN, BINGZAIYIDINGCHENGDUSHANGHUANJIERENKOULAOLINGHUADUIFUWUYEFAZHANDEFUXIANGYINGXIANG。

                                  CONGYAOSUTOURUDUIFUWUYEFAZHANDETUIDONGZUOYONGLAIKAN, DONGBUDIQUFUWUYEFAZHANCHENGXIAN“ZIBENYAOSUTOURUQUDONGXING”TEZHENG (CapitalDEXISHUXIANZHUWEIZHENG、LaborDEXISHUBUXIANZHU) , ZHONGXIBUDIQUFUWUYEFAZHANCHENGXIAN“LAODONGYAOSUTOURUQUDONGXING”TEZHENG (LaborDEXISHUXIANZHUWEIZHENG, CapitalDEXISHUBUXIANZHU) 。YIFANGMIAN, DUIYUDONGBUDIQUERYAN, PANGDADEBENDIXIAOFEISHICHANG、FUWUYEFAZHANDEXIANFAYOUSHIDENGYINSUSHIGAIDIQUDEFUWUYEFAZHANZHUBUXIANGYIZIBENHEJISHUTOURUWEIZHUDEXIANDAIFUWUYEFANGXIANGYANBIAN, YUCITONGSHI, ZHONGXIBUDIQUDEFUWUYEFAZHANRENGRANYILAODONGMIJIXINGDECHUANTONGFUWUYEWEIZHU, ZHEIDAOZHIDONGBUDIQUFUWUYEFAZHANGENGJIAYILAIZIBENTOURU, ERZHONGXIBUDIQUFUWUYEFAZHANGENGJIAYILAILAODONGLITOURU。LINGYIFANGMIAN, BUTONGDIQUDEFUWUYEFAZHANSUOCHENGXIANDETEZHENGYEFUHEBENQUYUNEIBUDEYAOSUJIEGOUPEIZHI。DUIYUZHONGXIBUDIQUERYAN, XIANGDUIYUZIBENGONGJI, GAIDIQUDELAODONGGONGJIXIANGDUIGENGWEIFENGFU, QIYOUSHIZHUYAOTIXIANZAILAODONGMIJIXINGCHANYE, ERDUIYUDONGBUDIQUERYAN, BENDIQUGAOYONGGONGCHENGBENDE“DAOBIXIAOYING”, YIJIBENDIQUDEFADAJINRONGXITONGDAILAIDEFENGYUZIBENSHIGAIDIQUFUWUYEFAZHANZHUBUXIANGCUNZAIGENGDAFAZHANKONGJIANHESHICHANGLIRUNDEZIBENMIJIXINGFUWUYEYANBIAN。

                                  表3 基于模型 (1) 的区域层面回归结果  

                                星云棋牌官网下载   ZHU:TONGBIAO2。

                                  3. 考虑养老保障体系影响的回归分析

                                星云棋牌官网下载   WEILEKAOCHAZHONGGUOYANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIBUDUANWANSHANDEYINGXIANG, BENWENYINRUYANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIWANSHANDU (System) ZHEIYIZHIBIAO, BINGLIYONGMOXING (2) HEMOXING (3) JINXINGJINGYANFENXI。GUJIJIEGUORUBIAO4SUOSHI。

                                星云棋牌官网下载   CONGBIAO4ZHONG1~3LIESHUJUKEYIKANCHU, YANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIBUDUANWANSHANDUIYUZONGTIFUWUYEFAZHANYOUYIDINGDECUJINZUOYONG (SystemDEXISHUXIANZHUWEIZHENG) , ERZAISHENGCHANXINGFUWUYEFAZHAN、SHENGHUOXINGFUWUYEFAZHANFANGMIAN, SHANGSHUXIAOYONGBINGBUXIANZHU。SHOUXIAN, GENJUMASILUODEXUQIUCENGCILILUN, YANGLAOBAOXIANZHIDUDEFUGAIJIANGHUISHIGONGZHONGZAIMANZUJIBENYANGLAOBAOZHANGHOU, “XINLIANQUAN”DEYIQIANGHUA, DUIZIWOJIAZHISHIXIANDEXUQIUGENGWEIQIANGLIE, GONGZUOGENGJIAJUYOUXIAOLV, JINERJIANJIECUJINFUWUYEFAZHAN, BINGYOUZHUYUHUANJIERENKOULAOLINGHUADUIFUWUYEFAZHANDEYIZHIXIAOYING;QICI, ZHONGGUODEJIBENYANGLAOBAOZHANGZHIDUMUQIANJINNENGMANZUGONGZHONGDEJIBENYANGLAOXUQIU, BUNENGXIANZHUTISHENGDAZHONGDEKEZHIPEISHOURU, QIDUIFUWUYEFAZHANDEYINGXIANGRENGJIUYOUXIAN, BINGBUNENGDUIGEGELEIXINGFUWUYEFAZHANCHANSHENGQUANMIANDEJIJIYINGXIANG;CIWAI, YANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIWANSHANHOUDEZONGHEXIAOYONGWANQUANFAHUIKENENGHUICUNZAIYIDINGDEZHIHOUXIAOYING, MUQIANYANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIWANSHANDUIFENLEIXINGFUWUYEFAZHANDEYINGXIANGKENENGSHANGWEIWANQUANXIANXIAN。

                                  CONGBIAO4ZHONG4~6LIESHUJUKEYIKANCHU, YANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIBUDUANWANSHANJIANGHUIRUOHUARENKOULAOLINGHUADUIZONGTIFUWUYEFAZHAN、SHENGHUOXINGFUWUYEFAZHANDEYIZHIXIAOYING (Aging_1HEAging_2DEXISHUYICIJIANXIAO, XIANGYINGDEMENJIANZHIFENBIEWEI0.596HE0.164) , ERZAISHENGCHANXINGFUWUYEFAZHANFANGMIAN, SHANGSHUXIAOYONGBINGBUXIANZHU。YANGLAOBAOZHANGZHIDUBUDUANWANSHANJIANGYOUZHUYUZENGQIANGGONGZHONGDEYUQISHOURUHELAOLINGRENQUNDEKEZHIPEISHOURU, ZHEIJIANGZENGQIANGRENMENDUIFUWUDEXUQIUBINGHUANJIERENKOULAOLINGHUADUIFUWUYEFAZHAN (YOUQISHISHENGHUOXINGFUWUYEFAZHAN) SUOBIAOXIANDEFUXIANGYINGXIANG。JUTILAIKAN, SUIZHEYANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIBUDUANWANSHAN, SHOUXIANKEYIHUANJIESHENGHUOXINGFUWUYEFAZHANSUOSHOUDAORENKOULAOLINGHUADEFUXIANGCHONGJI, ZI2011NIANQI, ZHONGGUO31GESHENGFENDEYANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIWANSHANDUJUNKUAYUE0.164ZHEIYIMENJIANZHI;ERSUIZHEYANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIJINYIBUWANSHAN, YEKEYIHUANJIEZONGTIFUWUYEFAZHANSUOSHOUDAORENKOULAOLINGHUADEFUXIANGCHONGJI, JIEZHI2015NIAN, ZHONGGUOJINBEIJING、SHANDONG、GUANGDONGDENG17GESHENGFENKUAYUE0.596ZHEIYIMENJIANZHI, ERGANSU、HAINAN、JIANGXIDENG14GESHENGFENSHANGWEIKUAYUEZHEIYIMENJIANZHI。

                                  表4 考虑养老保障体系完善的回归结果 (N=341)  

                                星云棋牌官网下载   ZHU:KUOHAONEISHUJUWEItZHI。R2/TDUIYINGDEWEIZUNEINIHEDUHUOZHEMENJIANJIANYANDEMENJIANZHI;Hausman/ThresholdDUIYINGDESHIXIANGYINGJIANYANDEpZHI。XIANYUPIANFU, BIAOZHONGSHUJU1~3LIE, JINJICHUHausmanJIANYANJIEGUOSUOZHICHIDEGUDINGXIAOYINGMOXINGDEGUJIJIEGUO。*、**、***FENBIEBIAOSHIZAI10%、5%、1%DESHUIPINGSHANGXIANZHU。

                                  (三) 稳健性检验

                                星云棋牌官网下载   WEILEJIANYANSHANGSHUGUJIJIEGUODEWENJIANXING, JIANGHENGLIANGRENKOULAOLINGHUADEZHIBIAOTIHUANWEILAOLINGHUALV, HENGLIANGYANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIWANSHANDUDEZHIBIAOTIHUANWEICHENGZHENZHIGONGYANGLAOBAOXIANJIAOFEIJINEZHANGDPBIZHONG, BINGZAICIGUJI。CHULEGEBIEBIANLIANGDEXIANZHUXINGFASHENGBIANHUAWAI, SHANGSHUJIEGUOBINGWUTAIDABIANHUA, ZHEISHUOMINGBENWENDESHIZHENGFENXIJIEGUOJUYOUJIAOQIANGDEWENJIANXING。XIANYUPIANFU, XIANGGUANWENJIANXINGJIANYANJIEGUOBINGWEILIECHU。

                                  五、结论与政策启示

                                  BENWENSHIZHENGFENXIFAXIAN, ZONGTILAIKAN, RENKOULAOLINGHUAJIANGHUIZUAIXIANJIEDUANZHONGGUOFUWUYEFAZHAN;RENKOULAOLINGHUADUIFUWUYEFAZHANDEFUXIANGYINGXIANGZAIDONGBUDIQUGENGWEITUXIAN、ZAIZHONGXIBUDIQUSHANGWEIWANQUANXIANXIAN;JIANQUANYANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIKEYIZAIYIDINGCHENGDURUOHUARENKOULAOLINGHUADUIZHONGGUOFUWUYEFAZHANDEFUXIANGCHONGJI。JIYUSHANGSHUFENXIJIELUN, KEDECHUYIXIAZHENGCEQISHI。

                                  DIYI, YAOZHENGSHIRENKOULAOLINGHUAJIAJUDUIXIANJIEDUANZHONGGUOFUWUYEFAZHANDEZUAIZUOYONG, CHONGFENBAWORENKOULAOLINGHUAWEIZHONGGUOFUWUYEZHUANXINGHESHENGJITIGONGDE“QIJI”, YIZHUDONG、JIJIYINGDUIRENKOULAOLINGHUADEXIAOJIYINGXIANGWEITUPOKOU, ZHUZHONGWAJUEHEPEIYUYIGAOJINENGLAODONGYOUXIAOGONGJIBUDUANZENGJIA、GAOSHUIPINGRENLIZIBENJILEIZHUBUQIANGHUAWEIZHUYAOTEZHENGDEZHILIANGXINGRENKOUHONGLI, YIKAOFUWUYAOSUSHENGJILAIYINLINGCHUANTONGFUWUYEZHUANXINGHESHENGJI、BINGWEIXIANDAIFUWUYEFAZHAN“ZHURU”NEISHENGDONGLI, JINERRUOHUABANSUIRENKOULAOLINGHUAERLAIDELAODONGGONGJIDUANQUE、LAODONGCHENGBENSHANGSHENGDENGYINSUDUIFUWUYEFAZHANDEFUXIANGCHONGJI。YIFANGMIAN, ZHONGGUOXUYAOZAIGENGDAFANWEINEISHISHIJIANJINSHIYANCHITUIXIUNIANLINGZHENGCE、POCHURENKOUKUAQUYULIUDONGHECHENGXIANGLIUDONGBILEI、GULIZHUANYEJISHULINGYURENCAIYANZHANGGONGZUONIANXIANBINGYINDAOQIFAHUIZAIKEXUEYANJIU、XUESHUJIAOLIUHEZIXUNFUWUFANGMIANDEZUOYONG, ZENGJIAFUWUYELAODONGGONGJISHULIANG;LINGYIFANGMIAN, ZHENGFUYAOZHUZHONGYINDAOPEIYANG“GAOJINGJIAN”FUWUYERENCAI, JIJIDAJIANDUOYANGHUADEFUWUYELAODONGZHEJINENGPEIXUNPINGTAI, CAIQUZHENDUIXINGBUTIEHUOSHUISHOUYOUHUIDENGZHENGCEYINDAOFUWUYEQIYEJIADADUIYUANGONGDERENLIZIBENTOUZI, YICILAITISHENGFUWUYELAODONGGONGJIZHILIANG。

                                星云棋牌官网下载   DIER, GEDIZHENGFUYAOJIYUBENDIQUDERENKOUTEZHENGHEYAOSUBIJIAOYOUSHIYINLINGGOUJIANXIANGSHIYINGDEFUWUYECHANYEJIEGOU, BINGYUQITADIQUJINXINGSHIDUDEFUWUYE“CUOWEIFAZHAN”, ZHEIJIANGYOUZHUYUFUWUYEZAIQUANGUOFANWEINEIDEZUIYOUKONGJIANBUJU, TONGSHIKEGUANSHANGHUANJIERENKOULAOLINGHUAJIFUWUYEFAZHANDAILAIDEQIANZAIFUXIANGYINGXIANG。MUQIAN, DONGBUDIQUHEZHONGXIBUDIQUDEFUWUYEFAZHANYIFENBIECHENGXIAN“ZIBENYAOSUTOURUQUDONGXING”HE“LAODONGYAOSUTOURUQUDONGXING”TEZHENG, ZHEIZHONGQUSHIRENGXUYAOJINYIBUJINXINGJIEGOUXINGYOUHUA。DUIYULAODONGYONGGONGCHENGBENJIAOGAODANRENLIZIBENJILEIHEJISHUSHUIPINGJIAOWEILINGXIANDEDONGBUDIQU, YINGGAIZHONGDIANDAZAOYIZHISHIMIJI、ZIBENJISHUMIJI、GAOFUJIAZHI、GAOJUJIXINGDENGWEIZHUYAOTEZHENG, YIXIANDAIJINRONGYE、XIANDAIXINXIFUWUYE、XIANDAIWENHUACHANYEDENGWEIZHUYAONEIRONGDEXIANDAIFUWUYETIXI, ERZHONGXIBUDIQUZEXUYAOYANZHE“PEIYUZHONGGAODUANFUWUYAOSU→YOUXUFAZHANZHONGGAODUANFUWUYE”DELINIANZHUBUSHIXIANFUWUYENEIBUJIEGOUSHENGJI, ZHEIYANGKEYIZHUBUHUANJIERENKOULAOLINGHUABUDUANJIAJUDUIDANGDIFUWUYEFAZHANDEFUXIANGCHONGJI。

                                星云棋牌官网下载   DISAN, ZAIRENKOULAOLINGHUABUDUANJIAJUBEIJINGXIA, ZHONGGUOYINGJIAQIANGYANGLAOBAOZHANGTIXIJIANSHE, YOUQISHIDUIYUJIBENYANGLAOBAOZHANGZHIDUDESHIJIZHIXINGLIDUYAOBUDUANQIANGHUABINGYANGEJIANGUAN。ZHEIBUJINYOUZHUYUGOUJIAN“LAOYOUSUOYANG、LAOYOUSUOYI”DEBAOZHANGTIXI, HAIKEYIZENGQIANGFUWUYECONGYELAODONGZHEDE“XINLIANQUAN”, ZENGJIADAZHONGDEYUQISHOURUBINGCIJIYANGLAOFUWUYEFAZHAN, YEYOUZHUYUXUERUORENKOULAOLINGHUADUIFUWUYEFAZHANDEFUXIANGCHONGJI。ZHENGFUXUYAOZHIDINGXIANGSHIYINGDECAISHUIZHENGCEGULISHEHUIZIBENJINRUYANGLAO、YILIAODENGCHANYELINGYU, HELIFUCHIBINGBUDUANGUIFANZHONGGUOYANGLAOCHANYESHICHANG, ZHUBUYINDAOGOUJIANBAOKUOLAONIANWENHUASHIYE、LAONIANJINRONGCHANPIN、YANGLAOSHEQUFUWUDENGJUYOUZHONGGUOTESEDE“YINSECHANYE”。

                                  参考文献
                                  [1].陈卫民、施美程 (2014) :《人口老龄化促进服务业发展的需求效应》, 《人口研究》, 第5期。
                                  [2] .崔树义、田杨 (2017) :《养老机构发展“瓶颈”及其破解--基于山东省45家养老机构的调查》, 《中国人口科学》, 第2期。
                                  [3] .邓明 (2014) :《人口年龄结构与中国省际技术进步方向》, 《经济研究》, 第3期。
                                  [4] .李谷成等 (2014) :《资本积累、制度变迁与农业增长》, 《管理世界》, 第5期。
                                  [5] .彭希哲、胡湛 (2011) :《公共政策视角下的中国人口老龄化》, 《中国社会科学》, 第3期。
                                  [6] .谭海鸣等 (2016) :《老龄化、人口迁移、金融杠杆与经济长周期》, 《经济研究》, 第2期。
                                  [7] .汪伟等 (2015) :《人口老龄化的产业结构升级效应研究》, 《中国工业经济》, 第11期。
                                  [8] .席强敏等 (2015) :《中国城市生产性服务业模式选择研究--以工业效率提升为导向》, 《中国工业经济》, 第2期。
                                  [9] .解垩 (2017) :《养老金与老年人口多维贫困和不平等研究--基于非强制养老保险城乡比较的视角》, 《中国人口科学》, 第5期。
                                  [10] .姚东旻等 (2017) :《老龄化如何影响科技创新》, 《世界经济》, 第4期。
                                  [11] .Acemoglu D., Restrepo P. (2017) , Secular Stagnation?The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation.NBER Working Pape.No.23077.
                                  [12] .Berk J., Weil D.N. (2015) , Old Teachers, Old Ideas, and the Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth.Research in Economics.69 (4) :661-670.
                                  [13] .Bloom D.E., Canning D., Fink G. (2010) , Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth.Oxford Review of Economic Policy.26 (4) :583-612.
                                  [14] .Guerrieri P., Meliciani V. (2005) , Technology and International Competitiveness:The Interdependence between Manufacturing and Producer Service.Structural Change and Economic Dynamics.16 (4) :489-502.
                                  [15] .Hall R.H., Jones C.I. (1999) , Why do Some Countries Produce so Much More Output Per Worker than Others?.The Quarterly Journal of Economics.114 (1) :83-116.
                                  [16] .Hansen B.E. (1999) , Threshold Effects in Non-dynamic Panels:Estimation, Testing, and Inference.Journal of Econometrics.93 (2) :345-368.
                                  [17] .Maestas N., Mullen K.J., Powell D. (2016) , The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity.NBER Working Paper.No.22452.
                                  [18] .Mao R., Xu J. (2014) , Population Aging, Consumption Budget Allocation and Sectoral Growth.China Economic Review.30:44-65.
                                  [19] .Mavesova P., Mohelska H., Ku a K. (2015) , Economics Aspects of Ageing Population.Procedia Economics and Finance.23:534-538.
                                  [20] .Pekka I., Seija I. (2010) , Working Force Ageing and Expanding Service Sector:A Double Burden on Productivity?.The Service Industries Journal.30 (12) :2093-2110.
                                  [21] .Silverstovs B., Kholodilin K.A., Thiessen U. (2011) , Does Aging Influence Structural Change?Evidence from Panel Data.Economic System.35 (2) :244-260.
                                  注释
                                  1 尽管第三产业不能等同于服务业, 但考虑到数据的可获得性, 同时参考现有文献的普遍做法 (汪伟等, 2015) , 本文采用第三产业增加值来衡量服务业发展水平。
                                  2 实际上, 本文的计量模型设定是以C-D生产函数为基础进行的一定拓展, 但控制变量并未直接包含反映技术水平的相应变量, 主要基于以下考虑:本文实证分析的样本数据是中国省级面板数据, 控制变量中已经包含了反映地区发展水平的人均实际GDP指标, 而人均实际GDP与地区技术水平具有较大的相关性, 经济发展程度较高的地区往往拥有较高的技术水平。
                                  3 考虑到总体城市化水平对单一细分生产性服务业的影响较小, 总体工业化水平对单一细分生活性服务业的影响较小, 为了保证估计的精确性, 在具体行业层面实证分析时, 不包括相应的控制变量。
                                  4 表2显示, 城市化水平对总体生活性服务业发展的影响并不显著, 而对生活性服务业细分行业发展的影响显著。可能的原因在于, 不同类型的生活性服务业细分行业发展是存在差异的 (由其对不同要素投入依赖性不同可以看出) , 总体服务业发展在一定程度上可能会体现出与服务业细分行业发展不一致的特征。

                                  参考文献
                                  [1].陈卫民、施美程 (2014) :《人口老龄化促进服务业发展的需求效应》, 《人口研究》, 第5期。
                                  [2] .崔树义、田杨 (2017) :《养老机构发展“瓶颈”及其破解--基于山东省45家养老机构的调查》, 《中国人口科学》, 第2期。
                                  [3] .邓明 (2014) :《人口年龄结构与中国省际技术进步方向》, 《经济研究》, 第3期。
                                  [4] .李谷成等 (2014) :《资本积累、制度变迁与农业增长》, 《管理世界》, 第5期。
                                  [5] .彭希哲、胡湛 (2011) :《公共政策视角下的中国人口老龄化》, 《中国社会科学》, 第3期。
                                  [6] .谭海鸣等 (2016) :《老龄化、人口迁移、金融杠杆与经济长周期》, 《经济研究》, 第2期。
                                  [7] .汪伟等 (2015) :《人口老龄化的产业结构升级效应研究》, 《中国工业经济》, 第11期。
                                  [8] .席强敏等 (2015) :《中国城市生产性服务业模式选择研究--以工业效率提升为导向》, 《中国工业经济》, 第2期。
                                  [9] .解垩 (2017) :《养老金与老年人口多维贫困和不平等研究--基于非强制养老保险城乡比较的视角》, 《中国人口科学》, 第5期。
                                  [10] .姚东旻等 (2017) :《老龄化如何影响科技创新》, 《世界经济》, 第4期。
                                  [11] .Acemoglu D., Restrepo P. (2017) , Secular Stagnation?The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation.NBER Working Pape.No.23077.
                                  [12] .Berk J., Weil D.N. (2015) , Old Teachers, Old Ideas, and the Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth.Research in Economics.69 (4) :661-670.
                                  [13] .Bloom D.E., Canning D., Fink G. (2010) , Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth.Oxford Review of Economic Policy.26 (4) :583-612.
                                  [14] .Guerrieri P., Meliciani V. (2005) , Technology and International Competitiveness:The Interdependence between Manufacturing and Producer Service.Structural Change and Economic Dynamics.16 (4) :489-502.
                                  [15] .Hall R.H., Jones C.I. (1999) , Why do Some Countries Produce so Much More Output Per Worker than Others?.The Quarterly Journal of Economics.114 (1) :83-116.
                                  [16] .Hansen B.E. (1999) , Threshold Effects in Non-dynamic Panels:Estimation, Testing, and Inference.Journal of Econometrics.93 (2) :345-368.
                                  [17] .Maestas N., Mullen K.J., Powell D. (2016) , The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity.NBER Working Paper.No.22452.
                                  [18] .Mao R., Xu J. (2014) , Population Aging, Consumption Budget Allocation and Sectoral Growth.China Economic Review.30:44-65.
                                  [19] .Mavesova P., Mohelska H., Ku a K. (2015) , Economics Aspects of Ageing Population.Procedia Economics and Finance.23:534-538.
                                  [20] .Pekka I., Seija I. (2010) , Working Force Ageing and Expanding Service Sector:A Double Burden on Productivity?.The Service Industries Journal.30 (12) :2093-2110.
                                星云棋牌官网下载   [21] .Silverstovs B., Kholodilin K.A., Thiessen U. (2011) , Does Aging Influence Structural Change?Evidence from Panel Data.Economic System.35 (2) :244-260.

                                  注释
                                  1 尽管第三产业不能等同于服务业, 但考虑到数据的可获得性, 同时参考现有文献的普遍做法 (汪伟等, 2015) , 本文采用第三产业增加值来衡量服务业发展水平。
                                  2 实际上, 本文的计量模型设定是以C-D生产函数为基础进行的一定拓展, 但控制变量并未直接包含反映技术水平的相应变量, 主要基于以下考虑:本文实证分析的样本数据是中国省级面板数据, 控制变量中已经包含了反映地区发展水平的人均实际GDP指标, 而人均实际GDP与地区技术水平具有较大的相关性, 经济发展程度较高的地区往往拥有较高的技术水平。
                                  3 考虑到总体城市化水平对单一细分生产性服务业的影响较小, 总体工业化水平对单一细分生活性服务业的影响较小, 为了保证估计的精确性, 在具体行业层面实证分析时, 不包括相应的控制变量。
                                星云棋牌官网下载   4 表2显示, 城市化水平对总体生活性服务业发展的影响并不显著, 而对生活性服务业细分行业发展的影响显著。可能的原因在于, 不同类型的生活性服务业细分行业发展是存在差异的 (由其对不同要素投入依赖性不同可以看出) , 总体服务业发展在一定程度上可能会体现出与服务业细分行业发展不一致的特征。

                                  吴飞飞,唐保庆.人口老龄化对中国服务业发展的影响研究[J].中国人口科学,2018(02):103-115+128.
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