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                        人口老龄化对中国经济的影响研究

                        时间:2018-09-12 来源:商业经济 作者:史京鑫 本文字数:3917字

                          摘    要: 我国人口老龄化呈现出发展速度快、未富先老、时间与空间不平衡的特征。人口老龄化的到来对我国社会、经济、文化、政治等领域均造成了深远的影响。加强对这方面的研究可使我们对人口发展现状有更全面的认识,未雨绸缪,于老龄化大规模席卷前从各方面做好充分准备。其应对策略是:发挥老年群体价值,缓解劳动力短缺压力;进行养老设施建设,进行医疗保险制度完善,提升储蓄率;大力发展老年产业,为老年群体提供就业机会。

                          关键词: 人口老龄化; 经济发展; 影响;

                        星云棋牌官网下载   WOGUORENKOUJIEGOULAOLINGHUAWENTIFEICHANGYANZHONG,ZIXINZHONGGUOCHENGLIHOUMIANLINLESANCIRENKOUSHENGYUGAOFENGQI,SHIWOGUORENKOUJISHUMINGXIANZENGDA。ZAI1950NIANSHOUCICHUXIANRENKOUGAOFENGDELAONIANRENQUNZAI2010NIANJUNDA60SUI,DANYINPINGJUNYUQISHOUMINGDEZENGZHANG,DAOZHIWOGUORENKOULAOLINGHUAWENTIJIAJU。YIZHAOXIANGGUANYANJIUBAOGAODEYUCE,2001-2020NIANWOGUODELAONIANRENQUNSHULIANGMEINIANJIANGZENGJIA596WAN,NIANJUNZENGZHANGSUDUDA3.28%,GAISHULIANGSHIXIANGDANGJINGRENDE[1]。ER2021-2050NIANSHUYUJIASULAOLINGHUAJIEDUAN,LAONIANRENKOUNIANZENGJIASHULIANGDADAO620WANREN,BINGQIEZONGRENKOUMANMANYOULINGZENGZHANGCHAOFUZENGZHANGGUODU;2030-2050NIANSHUYUWOGUOLAOLINGHUAZUIYANZHONGDEJIEDUAN,WOGUOLAONIANRENKOUFUYANGBIGAODA40%-50%。ZUYIKANCHU,ZAIWEILAIXIANGDANGZHANGYIDUANSHIJIANLI,WOGUODOUJIANGCHUYUZENGZHANGSUDUKUAI、GUIMOPANGDADELAOLINGHUAJINCHENGLI,QIEJIANGWEIWOGUOJINGJIFAZHANDAILAIJIAODAYINGXIANG。YINCI,JIAQIANGDUIRENKOULAOLINGHUAWEIJINGJISHEHUIDAILAIYINGXIANGDEYANJIUKESHIWOMENDUIRENKOUFAZHANXIANZHUANGYOUGENGQUANMIANDERENSHI,WEIYUCHOUMOU,YULAOLINGHUADAGUIMOXIJUANQIANCONGGEFANGMIANZUOHAOCHONGFENZHUNBEI。

                          一、我国人口老龄化特征

                          (一) 发展速度快

                          ZAIDILIUCIRENKOUPUCHABAOGAOLIXIANSHI,WOGUODALUZONGRENKOULIANGYIDA133281WANREN,ERQIZHONGLAONIANRENDESHULIANGJIUYIYOU17759WANREN,ZHEIYIJINGRENDELAONIANRENJISHUJIAKUAILEWOGUOLAOLINGHUASHIDAIDEDAOLAI,RANGWOGUOBIANCHENGSUOYOUFAZHANZHONGGUOJIALILAOLINGHUASUDUZUIKUAIDEGUOJIA。

                          (二) 未富先老

                          FADAGUOJIARENKOULAOLINGHUAZHUYAOCHUXIANYUJINGJISHUIPINGFAZHANZHIYIDINGCHENGDU、SHEHUICAIFULEIJIDAOYIDINGCHENGDUZHIHOU,ERZHEIYIJINGYOUZUGOUDENENGLILAISHILAOLINGHUADAILAIDESHEHUIWENTIDEDAOJIEJUE。BUGUO,WOGUOZHENGCHUYUJINGJIFAZHANZHUANXINGDEGUANJIANQI,BINGWEIDADAOFADASHUIPING,ERZAIZHEIZHIQIANLAOLINGHUAJIEDUANJIUYITIQIANDAOLAI,SHIDEJIAOWEIBORUODESHEHUICAIFUJILEIHEPANGDALAONIANQUNTIJIANMAODUNJIAJU,ZHISHICHANSHENGDEYANGLAODENGYIXILIESHEHUIWENTISHIZHONGDEBUDAOTUOSHANJIEJUE,WEIJINGJISHUIPINGDETISHENGYUHEXIEWENDINGSHEHUIWEICHIDAILAILETIAOZHAN。

                          (三) 时间与空间不平衡

                        星云棋牌官网下载   YISHIZAISHIJIANSHANGRENKOULAOLINGHUACHENGXIANCHULEMINGXIANDEBUPINGHENGFAZHANQUSHI,JUTIZHANXIANZAILAOLINGHUAFAZHANDESHOUGEJIEDUAN (1999-2000NIAN) ,SHIDECHAOGUO60SUIDELAONIANRENSHULIANGZENGJIA,DANQINGSHAONIAN、CHENGNIANRENDERENKOUSHULIANGBIZHONGJIANGDI,RENKOUJIEGOUYEYOUCHENGNIANXINGXIANGLAONIANXINGGUODU;ERZAI2000-2025NIAN,WOGUOLAONIANRENKOUSHULIANGJIANGZHENGSHIMAIJINKUAISUZENGZHANGDEGUANJIANSHIQI,CHAOGUO60SUIDERENKOUSHULIANGMIANLINDIERCIKUAISUZENGZHANG[2];2025-2050NIAN,WOGUORENKOULAOLINGHUAYIMAIJINZENGZHANGDEZUIYANZHONGSHIQI,LAONIANRENZAIWOGUOZONGRENKOUZHONGDEBILIKENENGJIANGGAODA27%ZUOYOU。GAISHIDUANYIGUO,WOGUOLAOLINGHUASHULIANGZENGZHANGSUDUJIANGZHUJIANXIAJIANG,MANMANQUYUPINGWEN。ERSHIZAIKONGJIANSHANGRENKOULAOLINGHUACHENGXIANCHULEFENBUBUJUNDEXIANXIANG,ZHEIZHUYAOYULAODONGLIYOUXIXIANGDONGBIAOXIANCHUJIETIZHUANGFAZHANQUSHIXIANGGUAN。YIZHAOLAOLINGHUACHENGDULAIFENQU,XUJIANGWOGUORENKOULAOLINGHUAFENZUOSIDAQUYU,ZHUYAOJI:DIYIQU:SHANGHAI,DANGQIANYITIQIANMAIJINGAODULAOLINGHUASHIQI[3];DIERQU:JING、JIN、ZHE,DANGQIANZHENGCHUZAIZHONGGAODULAOLINGHUASHIQI;DISANQU:HUBEI、SHANDONG、LIAONINGDENGSHENGSHI,DANGQIANZHENGCHUZAIZHONGDULAOLINGHUAJIEDUAN;DISIQU:NEIMENGGU、HEILONGJIANG、GANSUDENGSHENGSHI,DANGQIANZHENGCHUZAICHENGNIANXINGCHAOLAONIANXINGGUOQUDEZHUANZHESHIQI。

                        人口老龄化对中国经济的影响研究

                          二、老龄化对我国经济增长影响的理论与实证分析

                          (一) 理论分析

                          1. 老龄化为总人力资本带来的影响。

                          RENKOULAOLINGHUAYUEYANZHONG,ZONGRENLIZIBENJIANGYUEDI,DUISHEHUIJINGJIFAZHANZAOCHENGDEYINGXIANGYUEDA。

                          2. 人口老龄化为劳动力供给带来的影响。

                          JINHOUWOGUOLAONIANRENKOUJIANGCHENGXIANCHUCHIXUZENGZHANGDEQUSHI,QIESUIZHESHENGYULVDEJIANGDI,0-14SUIDESHAONIANERTONGRENSHUHUIZHUJIANJIANGDIQIEZHUJIANBAOCHIZAIWENDINGSHUIPING,ZAIWOGUOZONGRENKOUSHULIANGZHONGZHANBIYEJIAOPINGWEN[4]。DANCHUYULAODONGNIANLINGDERENKOUSHULIANG (JI15-64SUI) CHUXIANLERUBUFUCHUDEZHUANGTAI,YEJIUSHISHUOXIANGJIAOYULAONIANRENQUNSHULIANG,CANYULAODONGDERENKOUSHULIANGPIANSHAO。

                          3. 老龄化为资本形成总额带来的影响。

                        星云棋牌官网下载   LAOLINGHUAGUOCHENGHUIWEIXUQIUJIGONGJIDAILAIYINGXIANG,GUERZIBENXINGCHENGZONGEYEHUIFASHENGBIANHUA。ZHANZAIXUQIUSHIJIAOLAIFENXI,XIANJINSHEHUIZHONGLAONIANRENQUNSHULIANGBIZHONGCHIXUSHENGGAO,ZAIFUSHI、YULE、SHEHUIJIAOWANGDENGFANGMIANCHENGXIANCHUDIXIAOFEIQINGXIANG,DANLAONIANRENZHONGLIU、XINNAOXUEGUANDENGJIBINGFABINGLVGAO,HUIHUAFEIGENGDUODEWEISHENGZIYUAN,DANHULI、YILIAODENGFANGMIANDEXUQIUYOUBUFENDEDAOLEZINVHEGUOJIADECHENGDAN,YINCIZHEIZHONGQINGKUANGDUISHEHUIZAISHENGCHANLVDEKUODABULI。

                          (二) 实证分析

                          BENWENDUI2002-2013NIANWOGUO30GESHENG (ZHIXIASHI、ZIZHIQU) SHUJUZUOSHIZHENGFENXI,SHIZHENGSUOXUANMOXINGYUFANGFAWEI:DONGTAIMIANBANSHUJUHUIGUIMOXINGJIGUANGYIZHIGUJI (CMM) FA。

                          1. 实证方法。

                        星云棋牌官网下载   YIDONGTAIMIANBANMOXINGZUOSHIZHENGFENXI,JUBEIWAISHENGBIANLIANGDEDONGTAIMIANBANSHUJUMOXINGXINGSHIJI:

                        星云棋牌官网下载   CICHUXUANZEQIYIJIEZHIHOUXINGSHI:

                        老龄化为经济发展造成影响的GMM估计表

                        星云棋牌官网下载   yitDAIBIAOBEIJIESHIBIANLIANG,yi, t-1DAIBIAOBEIJIESHIBIANLIANGZHIHOUYIQI,XkitDAIBIAOJIESHIBIANLIANG,αiDAIBIAOXISHU,φiDAIBIAOGETIXIAOYING,εitDAIBIAOSUIJIWUCHAXIANG。

                          ZHENDUIMOXINGDEJIANYAN,XUANZEJTONGJILIANGDUIMOXINGNIHEXIAOGUOYOULIEJINXINGPINGJIA,TONGSHIZUOMOXINGPINGWENXINGJIANYAN。

                          2. 实证思路。

                        星云棋牌官网下载   JINGJIFAZHANYULAODONGLIGONGJI、ZONGRENLIZIBENDENGYINSUXIANGGUAN。ERCICHUYILAODONGNIANLINGRENKOUZAIZONGRENKOUZHONGDEZHANBI、RENLIZIBEN (RENJUNSHOUJIAOYUCHENGDU) 、LAODONGCANYULVZUOZONGRENLIZIBENHENGLIANGZHIBIAO,LIYONGZHUCHENGFENFENXIFAJINXINGZHIBIAODEZHUCHENGFENFENXI (GUOCHENGLVE) 。

                          3. 实证结果和分析。

                          DUIBIANLIANGXINGZHIYUJINGJIYIYIDEJIESHIZHANKAIQUANMIANKAOLV,MINGQUEDEDONGTAIMIANBANMOXINGJI:

                        星云棋牌官网下载   yi, tSHUYUBEIJIESHIBIANLIANG;yi, t-1JUTIDAIBIAODUIYINGBEIJIESHIBIANLIANGDEZHIHOUYIQI;LNFYi, tDAIBIAODESHILAONIANFUYANGBI,ERLNFLi, tDAIBIAODESHILAONIANRENKOUZENGZHANGLVDUISHU,ZDi, tDAIBIAODESHIZHIDUHUANJINGBIANHUADEZONGHEZHIBIAO,αi、φi、εi, tYICIDAIBIAODUIYINGXISHU、GETIXIAOYINGYUSUIJIWUCHAXIANG。YOUYISHANGFANGCHENG3NENGGOUKANCHULAONIANFUYANGBIQUESHIHUIWEIGEBEIJIESHIBIANLIANGZAOCHENGFUMIANYINGXIANG。

                        星云棋牌官网下载   YOUXIABIAOHUIGUIJIEGUOKEJIANJTONGJILIANGZAI1%DEXIANZHEXINGSHUIPINGXIABIKAFANGFENBULINJIEZHIGENGXIAO,FANGCHENGGONGJUBIANLIANGXUANQUSHIYI。TONGSHI,MEIGEFANGCHENGCANCHAJUNHUODELEPINGWENXINGJIANYAN,BIAOMINGDONGTAIMIANBANSHUJUWENDING,GMMFANGFAGUJIYOUXIAO。

                          老龄化为经济发展造成影响的GMM估计表
                        老龄化为经济发展造成影响的GMM估计表

                          YOUYISHANGSHIZI1NENGGOUKANCHU,RENKOULAOLINGHUAHUIWEILAODONGNIANLINGRENKOUSHUZAIZONGRENKOUSHUZHONGDEZHANBIDAILAIBULIANGYINGXIANG。TONGSHI,RUOYIGEGUOJIADELAOLINGRENKOUZENGJIA,HUISHIGAISHEHUIYUANBENDECHUANGZAOLIXIAJIANG,JILAOLINGHUAHUISHISHEHUIJISHUJINBUSHOUZU。LINGWAI,LAONIANRENKOUSHULIANGZENGDUODUIXINJISHUDEPUJIYUTUIGUANGBULI,YEJIUWEIJISHUJINBUDAILAIZHIYUE。

                        星云棋牌官网下载   YOUYISHANGGONGSHI1YUGONGSHI3FAXIANLAOLINGHUAHAIHUIWEILAODONGCANYULVYIJIRENLIZIBENDAILAIFUMIANYINGXIANG。CICHUTIJIDERENLIZIBENZHIBIAOZHUYAOCAIYONGDESHIRENJUNSHOUJIAOYUNIANXIAN。DANLAOLINGHUAJINCHENGYURENMENDUISHOUJIAOYUDEGUANZHUDUDETISHENGJUNSHUYUSHIDAIFAZHANCUISHENGDECHUDECHANWU。KEJIAN,LAOLINGHUAJINCHENGBUHUIWEIJIAOYUDAILAIFUMIANYINGXIANG。BUGUO,YINLAONIANRENSHOUJIAOYUCHENGDUPIANDI,XUERUOLEWOGUORENKOUPINGJUNSHOUJIAOYUCHENGDU,WEIZHENGGESHEHUIRENLIZIBENZAOCHENGBULIANGYINGXIANG。

                          三、应对人口老龄化的经济发展策略

                          (一) 发挥老年群体价值,缓解劳动力短缺压力

                          YINGGULILAONIANQUNTIJIJICANJIAJIUYE,ZHENDUIYIXIEYIDAOLETUIXIUNIANLINGDANYIJIUBENBOZAIGONGZUOGANGWEIDE,WEISHEHUIJINGJIFAZHANZUOCHUGONGXIANDELAONIANQUNTIXUJIYUXINCHOUYUFULIFANGMIANDEBUZHU;TONGSHI,XUGENJUSHEHUIJINGJIFAZHANQINGKUANG,JINXINGTUIXIUNIANLINGDEHELIDIAOZHENG,SHILAONIANRENZAIGANGWEISHANGFAHUIGENGDAJIAZHI,HUANJIELAODONGLIDUANQUEYALI。

                          (二) 强化养老设施建设,完善医疗保险制度,提升储蓄率

                          YINWOGUOCANYUBAOXIANGOUMAIDERENYUANSHULIANGBINGBUSHIFEICHANGDUO,YOUQISHINONGCUNDIQUDELAONIANQUNTI,ZAOCHENGZHEIBUFENRENZAIJINRULAONIANJIEDUANHOUWUGUDINGSHOURULAIYUAN,JIANGDILEXIAOFEIZHILIANG,ERDISHOURUYUSHOURULAIYUANBUWENDINGYEWEIWOGUOLAONIANRENCANYUCHUXUDAILAILEXIANZHI,GAIWENTIDEDAOJIEJUEDEGUANJIANJIUSHICAIQUCHUANTONGZINVYANGLAOYUSHEHUIYANGLAO (BAOKUOSHEQU、QIYEYANGLAODENG) JIEHEDEFANGSHI。TONGSHI,ZHENGFUXUJIEHEDANGDILAONIANRENSHULIANGYIJIJINGJIFAZHANDEJUTIQINGKUANG,ZENGJIADUIYANGLAOJIGOUJIANSHEDETOUZILIDU,JIANGXIANZAIDALIANGBEICHEBINGDEZHONGXIAOXUEXIAOYUANGAIZAOWEIYANGLAOYUANYIJIXIANZHIDEJUWEIHUIGAIZAOWEIYANGLAOYUAN,JIANGXUEXIAO、SHEQUNEIXIANZHIDE、WANHAODE、KESHIYONGDEBANGONGSHESHILIYONGQILAIGONGLAONIANRENSHIYONG,JIESHENGTOUZIDETONGSHI,YOUSHILAONIANRENYANGLAOHUANJINGDEDAOGAISHAN,QUEBAOLAONIANRENSHENGHUOGENGYOUZHILIANG。

                          (三) 大力发展老年产业,为老年群体提供就业机会

                          YIFANGMIAN,YINWOGUOXIANJINLAONIANXIAOFEICHANYEDEFAZHANYIJIUCHUZAIGANGQIBUDEJIEDUAN,GUERLIBUKAIGUOJIAZHENGCEDEYINDAOYUZHICHI,LAICUSHILAONIANCHANYEDEDAOFAZHAN。SHOUXIAN,ZHENGFUBUMENYINGJIANGZHUDAOZUOYONGCHONGFENFAHUICHULAI,ZHIDINGCHUKETUIDONGLAONIANCHANYEFAZHANDEXIANGGUANFALVFAGUIZHIDU,QUANLIZHICHILAONIANCHANYEFAZHAN;QICI,GENJUWOGUOXIANSHIGUOQING,BUKEMANGMUJINXINGXIAOFEIGUIMOKUODA,BINGJIEHESHIJIJINXINGXIAOFEISHUIPINGHELIKONGZHI,HELAONIANRENQUNDEGOUMAILIXIANGFU,QUEBAOJINGJIFAZHANNENGGOUGENSHANGRENKOULAOLINGHUADEBUFA。

                        星云棋牌官网下载   LINGYIFANGMIAN,XIANGGUANBUMEN、QIYEHUOJIGOUYINGZENGJIAZAILAOLINGCHANYEFANGMIANDERENCAI、JISHUYUZIJINTOURU,QIANGHUAJIJINDELUOSHIPINGGUHEJIANDU,JINXINGFAZHANWEIYUANHUISHELI,ZHUANMENYONGYULAOLINGHUACHANYEDEGUIHUAYUANPAI,QUEBAOYUNZUOGENGJIAHELI,JIJINSHIYONGGENGJIAGUIFAN,SHILAONIANQUNTICONGZHONGXIANGSHOUHUIGU,YEDADAOHUANJIEJINGJIFAZHANYALIDEMUDE。

                          四、结语

                        星云棋牌官网下载   YINJIHUASHENGYUZHENGCEDESHISHI,WOGUODESHENGYULVYIDAFUXIAJIANG,ZHEIYIWEIZHEZAIXINCHUSHENGRENKOUSHULIANGXIAJIANGDETONGSHI,LAONIANRENKOUBILICHENGCHIXUSHANGSHENGQUSHI,QIEZAIWEILAIHENZHANGYIDUANSHIJIANZHEIYIXIANXIANGDOUSHIZHONGCUNZAI,YEBIRANHUIWEIWOGUOZONGRENLIZIBEN、LAODONGLIGONGJI、LAODONGLISHOUJIAOYUCHENGDU、ZIBENXINGCHENGZONGEDAILAICHENGDUBUTONGDEYINGXIANG。

                          JIBIANRUCI,LAOLINGHUAJINSHUYUYINGXIANGSHEHUIJINGJIFAZHANDEYINSUZHIYI,YIGEGUOJIADEFAZHANHAIKEYITONGGUOQUANMIANSHENHUAGAIGELAIQUDEJINGJIDEZHUANXINGSHENGJI,ERYEJIUYAOQIUYICHUANGXINTUPODENGFANGSHILAISHIXIANJINGJIHUOLIDETISHENG,DADAOSHENGCHANXIAOLVTIGAODEXIAOGUO,RUOZAILAOLINGHUADAGUIMODAOLAIQIAN,ZHENGFU、JIATING、SHEHUI、JUMINDENGDUOFANGXIELIJIZHONGJINGLIDUIWOGUOSHEHUIJINGJIFAZHANZHANKAIQUANMIANSHENHUAGAIGE,ZHUZHONGCHANYEJIEGOUDEHELIDIAOZHENG,BIJIANGNENGGOUZUIDAXIANDUDIHUANJIELAOLINGHUASHIDAIDAOLAIWEIWOGUOJINGJIFAZHANDAILAIDEBULIANGYINGXIANG,ZUIZHONGSHIXIANZHONGHUAMINZUDEWEIDAFUXING。

                          参考文献

                          [1]聂旖晴.人口老龄化背景下实现经济可持续发展的思考[J].金融理论与教学,2018 (4) :91-93.
                          [2]潘洪志.我国人口老龄化对经济增长的影响及对策研究[J].商业经济,2018 (7) :116-117.
                          [3]王莹莹.人口老龄化背景下我国劳动力供给变化趋势及其影响因素研究[J].劳动保障世界,2018 (17) :3-4.
                        星云棋牌官网下载   [4]郭恒芳.浅析人口老龄化问题对我国社会发展的影响[J].现代营销 (下旬刊) ,2017 (12) :242.

                          史京鑫.人口老龄化对我国经济发展的影响[J].商业经济,2019(09):135-137.
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